tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65582918061054445952024-03-17T11:15:32.946+02:00Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend ResearchTechnical Analysis and Psychological ObservationsKaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.comBlogger335125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-11778109077367724822013-05-31T13:05:00.000+03:002013-05-31T15:17:30.380+03:00UST Bonds selloff boosted the USD. Retracement time now favors Long EURUSD & GOLD and Short USDJPY<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-T_SggNL4srg/Uahzetjm6lI/AAAAAAAABeI/loKziXmE9ps/s1600/2013.05.31+-+10Y+Note+Price+W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="159" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-T_SggNL4srg/Uahzetjm6lI/AAAAAAAABeI/loKziXmE9ps/s320/2013.05.31+-+10Y+Note+Price+W.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Bond markets are the major
market mover behind the USD strength in the past 2 weeks after the first
article hinting FED’s planning a QE exit. US 10-Y Note is breaking down on
Weekly charts with a first measured target around 127. While most look at the
Global Stock markets the major FX moves are affected by the Bond markets because
of the huge volume traded. As the FED is globally setting the price of money we
should keep an eye on the developments there.</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oHiZD_-8zDo/Uahzev4_xiI/AAAAAAAABeE/_F_3x1CzaFA/s1600/2013.05.31+-+10Y+Note+Yield+W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oHiZD_-8zDo/Uahzev4_xiI/AAAAAAAABeE/_F_3x1CzaFA/s320/2013.05.31+-+10Y+Note+Yield+W.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span><span style="color: #1f497d;">The US 10-Y
Note Yield is breaking above the last High and it’s signalling a rise in the
implied US Interest Rates as a direct result of the assumed FED QE exit. This
logically concides with the topping out of the Global Markets in the last week.
Rising Interest Rates in the US are USD positive as the Interest Differential
to the EU and other CBs is shrinking as the ECB & RBA are actually lowering
the rates.</span></span></div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0v5YWZUI4DE/UahzgTxD2HI/AAAAAAAABes/SWOsOPOT67M/s1600/2013.05.31+-+USDX+D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="158" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0v5YWZUI4DE/UahzgTxD2HI/AAAAAAAABes/SWOsOPOT67M/s320/2013.05.31+-+USDX+D.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">USDX – The
Dollar Index is retreating from the recent High and is sitting comfortably at
the Support around 83. I would assume it will be consolidating for the next
week until it goes down to the Flat Support around 82.50 where it will meet the
Lower Channel Support. That weakness is easily seen in the retracements in the
currencies and Gold.</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0v5YWZUI4DE/UahzgTxD2HI/AAAAAAAABes/SWOsOPOT67M/s1600/2013.05.31+-+USDX+D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-b1ZgJowhQzM/UahzeiW7W1I/AAAAAAAABeM/-oZJiJ0tV8c/s1600/2013.05.31+-+EURUSD+D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-b1ZgJowhQzM/UahzeiW7W1I/AAAAAAAABeM/-oZJiJ0tV8c/s320/2013.05.31+-+EURUSD+D.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">EURUSD Daily
chart as mentioned before has broken above the psychological level of 1.3 and
run into the real Resistance around 1.3040/50. The flat 200-Day MVA at 1.3115
is a powerful magnet and next week it will be touched with almost 955
probability. It coincides with the Higher Bollinger Band around 1.3130 and as a
rule of thumb once the 20-Day MVA is broken with confirmation the price would
travel to the other BBand. The ultimate Support is provided my the layered 8,
20 and 50-Day MVAs right below the spot price. The Momentum measured by the
Stochastic Oscillator is giving confirmation to the upmove at the present
moment.</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aBv2Gk9qlw4/Uahzfso_zfI/AAAAAAAABec/Z1Vga1lZLYg/s1600/2013.05.31+-+GOLD+D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aBv2Gk9qlw4/Uahzfso_zfI/AAAAAAAABec/Z1Vga1lZLYg/s320/2013.05.31+-+GOLD+D.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">GOLD Daily
Chart – USD weakness translates into surge in Gold’s price. Technical breaking
above the 20-Day MVA above 1410 it’s next target lays around 1460 with the
50-Day MVA. Momentum has turned positive and from a wider perspective Gold has
already put a Higher Low around 1355 after the steep liquidations in April down
to around 1320. The probability is favoring a surge to the upper Range of the
last 2 months as noted by the 50-Day MVA and the Higher Bollinger Band around
1475.<span style="font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BzctUBUzldU/UahzfyI7dzI/AAAAAAAABeg/Fs-NXh8dzA8/s1600/2013.05.31+-+USDJPY+D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="182" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BzctUBUzldU/UahzfyI7dzI/AAAAAAAABeg/Fs-NXh8dzA8/s320/2013.05.31+-+USDJPY+D.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">USDJPY Daily
Chart – The Momentum has turned down and the Weekly chart is Turning as well.
It coincides with the BOJ officials’ rhetoric that the current weakening of the
YEN has been enough to make up for the former disbalances and they would be
confortable with an assumed 95-105 range.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The multiyear
Fibonacci retracement 50% level at around 99.50 is very important and will be
pivotal going forward. The immediate support is lying at the Lower Bollinger
Band around 98.90 and there is a good probability that we see these levels in
the next 2 weeks. Given the Stock market weakness we can see more unwinding in
the JPY pairs and witness USDJPY selling getting even steeper. The ultimate
Support is at the Ichimoku cloud around 97.80.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-72074776852702502302013-05-24T14:00:00.001+03:002013-05-31T15:12:34.367+03:00EURUSD at critical Resistance below 1.30 level<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MFfgSfUAOuo/UZ9IBoZ8FHI/AAAAAAAABdw/hQ4D5zxJjSA/s1600/2013.05.24+-+EURUSD+D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="191" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MFfgSfUAOuo/UZ9IBoZ8FHI/AAAAAAAABdw/hQ4D5zxJjSA/s320/2013.05.24+-+EURUSD+D.jpg" width="320" /></span></a></div>
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<u><span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">EURUSD Daily
chart:<o:p></o:p></span></span></u></div>
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<span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Following the
better than expected IFO data the EURUSD surged to an intraday High 1.2992,
just shy of Wednesday’s Ben Bernanke induced whipsaw High 1.2997. While that
sparked a lot of EUR buying against the USD and on the other EUR crosses the
overall USD strength is still present as the GBPUSD and AUD USD lagged
that counter trend move.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Technically the
EURUSD is running into a very solid layer of Resistance: the 50-Day MVA is
right at 1.2980 and above it is the 20-Day MVA at 1.30 which would be a tough level
to break. The move up would be only confirmed by a close above 1.3040-50 which
a more important level based on the previous chart points.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">While my view
is biased towards a down trend continuation there is a counter argument based
on the turning Momentum represented by the buy signal generated by the
Stochastic Oscillator and the fact that the recent Low around 1.28 is actually
higher than the previous Lows around 1.2750 made in the start of March.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-43588228407223670502012-09-30T14:52:00.001+03:002012-09-30T14:52:42.052+03:00Shanghai Composite is tumbling, S&P500 and GOLD are losing Momentum.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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As the whole world is now aware the Federal Reserve has announced 2 weeks ago that it will continue with its stimulative policy effectively starting what is known as QE3. This gave risk taking a boost but we saw last week the waning of the momentum in the S&P500.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aUvQxt79sCs/UGgryuTu8vI/AAAAAAAABcY/JGgvyq0DPy4/s1600/2012.09.30+-+SSEC-W+TA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"> </a><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aUvQxt79sCs/UGgryuTu8vI/AAAAAAAABcY/JGgvyq0DPy4/s1600/2012.09.30+-+SSEC-W+TA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"> </a><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z3qKlh9qL8M/UGgr1Y8cK3I/AAAAAAAABcg/wDsOTtujcso/s1600/2012.09.30+-+SPX-W+TA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="194" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z3qKlh9qL8M/UGgr1Y8cK3I/AAAAAAAABcg/wDsOTtujcso/s320/2012.09.30+-+SPX-W+TA.jpg" width="320" /> </a></div>
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This is a great chart depicting the impact of the stimulative policy of the FED since the Lehman Brothers collapse. It is always hard and a bit stupid to call a top before a significant move in the market actually signals it but it is noteworthy to pay attention to the waning momentum indicated by the Slow Stochastics which already turned down. The Candlestick pattern on the Weeklies also gives a warning signal of a possible reversal.</div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-crysWyFkIBA/UGgr596EPJI/AAAAAAAABcw/oSuzdOmVDQg/s1600/2012.09.30+-+SPX-SSEC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="193" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-crysWyFkIBA/UGgr596EPJI/AAAAAAAABcw/oSuzdOmVDQg/s320/2012.09.30+-+SPX-SSEC.jpg" width="320" /> </a></div>
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Shanghai Composite has been in the news recently as Industrial Production figures decline further. It is reported that there is a general lack of interest in the Mainland to investing in the stock market and people are rather putting money in the Real Estate as a more prudent way to manage their wealth. The SSEC Index is in steady decline ever since the global financial crisis started and this is in a stark contrast to the steady rise in the US stock markets. And this event has a rather clear explanation.</div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AQBIo5hnoyI/UGgr3rRoWkI/AAAAAAAABco/_4niPaON5H4/s1600/2012.09.30+-+GOLD-W+TA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="193" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AQBIo5hnoyI/UGgr3rRoWkI/AAAAAAAABco/_4niPaON5H4/s320/2012.09.30+-+GOLD-W+TA.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
The price of GOLD has been a proxy for the flight to safety and the fear of the inflationary policy of the Federal Reserve. It's move is a good indicator of how the investment community perceives the risk of the debasement of the US Dollar and we can easily see how in the last 3 months the QE3 phase has been largely anticipated giving GOLD a boost up to the significant ~$1780 level. Looking at momentum, however we had to exercise caution as it has begun to lose steam already and while we can't call a top without any significant chart confirmation, the risk of retracement at this stage is rather big.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fX-Q_TzchDw/UGgr_tY3CpI/AAAAAAAABc4/q3GzbtoqSg8/s1600/2012.09.30+-+GOLD-SPX-SSEC+W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="193" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fX-Q_TzchDw/UGgr_tY3CpI/AAAAAAAABc4/q3GzbtoqSg8/s320/2012.09.30+-+GOLD-SPX-SSEC+W.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
As Chinese has the saying "A picture is worth a 1000 words" here is the story of the world since the beginning of the global financial crisis. The US found its way to inflate its equity markets out of the mess while the Chinese markets failed to do so which is mainly to the difference in the monetary of the 2 economies. While it is a rather complicated concept to differentiate the 2 approaches it is obvious that the US markets have been a rather better performer.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xHyzka1GaTU/UGgsEijEoqI/AAAAAAAABdI/-cHXKAOoIsY/s1600/2012.09.30+-+SPX-USDX.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xHyzka1GaTU/UGgsEijEoqI/AAAAAAAABdI/-cHXKAOoIsY/s320/2012.09.30+-+SPX-USDX.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
This chart is simply a confirmation how the depreciation of the US Dollar helped boost the US Equity markets - an easy and proven approach since the birth of central banks around the middle of 18-th century. <br />
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<br />Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com138tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-621189002125445492012-08-15T00:46:00.001+03:002012-08-15T00:46:37.071+03:00US Dollar Index basing above 82 for a potential burst UP.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NR7QipmZop4/UCrGCrWnbuI/AAAAAAAABcE/Mp6-8YhJdlI/s1600/2012.08.15+-+USDX+D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NR7QipmZop4/UCrGCrWnbuI/AAAAAAAABcE/Mp6-8YhJdlI/s320/2012.08.15+-+USDX+D.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Classic Technical Analysis would spot the previous TOP at 82 now acting as a Support level as the USDX is basing around these current levels.<br />
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Slow Stochastics are turning UP from Oversold conditions and this coincides with the Over-extended run in the AUDUSD and the Stoxx (S&P 500 e.g.).<br />
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Trendline Support coincides at the current levels as well and the confluence of technical signals gives me a hint of a good probability we witness an Upward continuation of the Trend move in the USDX and possibly profit from a Long USD position. Good luck and Good trading!<br />
<br />Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-15920377189030059082012-06-27T17:56:00.000+03:002012-06-27T17:56:28.016+03:00Starting to build Long Crude Oil position after 30% fall.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kOeaL3WioAA/T-seYUUMwGI/AAAAAAAABb4/08YzyJFYc9U/s1600/2012.06.27+-+CL+D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kOeaL3WioAA/T-seYUUMwGI/AAAAAAAABb4/08YzyJFYc9U/s320/2012.06.27+-+CL+D.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Crude Oil fell 30% in the last 2 months and it gives me a reasonable Risk/Return perspective to start a tentative Long position around the $80 level via the CL August '12 contract.<br />
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A clear stop would be situated below 77.5.Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-28064330219291232572012-06-21T01:25:00.001+03:002012-06-21T01:26:57.275+03:00FX Majors are flirting with their 50% retracement levels.<div style="text-align: justify;">
FOMC tonight announced that it will continue its Operation Twist.</div>
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Details can be found in all major news-wires, Bloomberg for example:</div>
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<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-20/the-fed-is-running-out-of-room-to-twist.html">http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-20/the-fed-is-running-out-of-room-to-twist.html</a></div>
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All currencies have had a good run down as the USD strengthened all throughout May 2012. Once a strong trend like this is reversed traders start to think where its correction will end as it is a natural inclination of the markets as representation of the mass human psyche to pursue a goal or follow an established trend while it lasts. And momentum and inertia are most powerful and enduring forces, so I'd like to be short ahead of the 50% retracements of the latest trends as markets tend to mean reverting so a 50% correction should be quite sufficient before markets resume its due course. Otherwise it's all a matter of Risk/Money Management.</div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0zVX06rXq4w/T-JHJCm24dI/AAAAAAAABbY/i1rmO3mZ22E/s1600/2012.06.20+-+EURUSD+D+Fibs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="183" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0zVX06rXq4w/T-JHJCm24dI/AAAAAAAABbY/i1rmO3mZ22E/s320/2012.06.20+-+EURUSD+D+Fibs.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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EUR/USD did touch close to the 50% around 1.2787 and is hovering post NY session around 1.27. Slow Stochastics are not overextended and it's way below its 200-Day SMA which naturally reflects its beaten up status among the Debt crisis mess with all the Southern European countries with rising Bond Yields. </div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8rWmLaj6Yew/T-JHJ9P_czI/AAAAAAAABbg/hMtZU0YVluQ/s1600/2012.06.20+-+GBPUSD+D+Fibs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="184" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8rWmLaj6Yew/T-JHJ9P_czI/AAAAAAAABbg/hMtZU0YVluQ/s320/2012.06.20+-+GBPUSD+D+Fibs.jpg" width="320" /> </a></div>
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GBP/USD has bounced off its Triple Bottom around 1.5262 and quite sufficiently touched the 50% level at 1.5783 and quickly fell back below the 200-Day SMA. Key Levels are the 20011-2012 range 38.2% level at 1.5832 and the 1.5660 (38.2% level of the latest correction) on the downside once (IF) the reversal to the prevailing down-trend starts. </div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-m30uOxhmyZw/T-JHITMj3ZI/AAAAAAAABbU/3G0rgc90eFE/s1600/2012.06.20+-+AUDUSD+D+Fibs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="183" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-m30uOxhmyZw/T-JHITMj3ZI/AAAAAAAABbU/3G0rgc90eFE/s320/2012.06.20+-+AUDUSD+D+Fibs.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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AUD/USD already did 6 big Figures up and stopped right before its 50% correction around 1.0218 and the 200-Day SMA and also just below the 50% level of the whole 2011-2012 range. Slow Stochastics here are mostly over-extended and poised to flash a major Sell signal.</div>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0Ng8tmBz5L0/T-JHKhDcDbI/AAAAAAAABbo/K6KRYGuceyA/s1600/2012.06.20+-+USDCAD+D+Fibs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="183" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0Ng8tmBz5L0/T-JHKhDcDbI/AAAAAAAABbo/K6KRYGuceyA/s320/2012.06.20+-+USDCAD+D+Fibs.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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USD/CAD has built a major short positioning among the retail accounts and that is just one facet of the Long view here. Slow Stochastics are turning Up while the pair is still far from the 50% and the 200-Day SMA, however it's sitting right on the 38.2% of the 2011-2012 range. The signal here is somewhat weaker but those uncertain trades often turn the best winners.</div>
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These levels are on the table now so I'm positioned to buy the USD agains the majors for a resumption of the latest trend we witnessed in May. Certainly we might hit the 61.8% or even reverse the whole trend and venture into major USD weakness but it's all possible in the markets and in the world as a whole so that's why Money/Risk Management is key to our survival as traders and humans as well. Good luck & good trading!</div>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-20721358381109413182012-06-05T17:10:00.002+03:002012-06-05T17:10:43.558+03:00Shorting Long Term Bonds - Sold TLT at 129.59 on June 05, 2012.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jK160s1P-Xw/T84SYfM4r5I/AAAAAAAABbI/hxYV9L8VJR8/s1600/2012.06.05+-+TLT+W+short.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="254" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jK160s1P-Xw/T84SYfM4r5I/AAAAAAAABbI/hxYV9L8VJR8/s320/2012.06.05+-+TLT+W+short.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Long term Yields are reaching all time lows. I'd like to buy them for a change.<br />
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Sold the Long Bonds through the TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF) yesterday at 129.59.Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-88505075807822556202012-03-22T13:12:00.001+02:002012-03-22T13:12:34.664+02:00BAC - The next great Short<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-imS0KgAkQpU/T2sIFjJ36nI/AAAAAAAABbA/3OtLsgTfWl8/s1600/2012.03.22+-+BAC+D.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-imS0KgAkQpU/T2sIFjJ36nI/AAAAAAAABbA/3OtLsgTfWl8/s320/2012.03.22+-+BAC+D.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<a class="tab-link" href="http://www.bankofamerica.com/" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #1e6dc0; font-family: Arial, Verdana, Tahoma; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-center; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" target="_blank"><b>Bank of America Corporation</b></a> / BAC - 1st in Volume traded and 45 in Market Cap.<br />
Seems everybody wanna see $10. I myself see overextended move on falling Volume. What more could I ask besides 1.42% Short float?<br />
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Looks like a great Short to do.Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-19683289323024741512012-03-21T17:29:00.001+02:002012-03-21T17:29:44.182+02:00AAPL begs to go SHORT<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Y5ZYtfsg-2k/T2ny5-uj7iI/AAAAAAAABa4/IuH8-nY-GdM/s1600/2012.03.21+-+AAPL+D.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Y5ZYtfsg-2k/T2ny5-uj7iI/AAAAAAAABa4/IuH8-nY-GdM/s320/2012.03.21+-+AAPL+D.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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The favorite stock of the investing world and the favorite company of all the 'other' world is now paying dividend. It's on a massive extended trend and above 600 now. It's like everything is just fine and it will go to the Moon. I like that. I like that everybody likes AAPL and wants or already has it. This is why I wanna go Short around here.<br />
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ADX based on Wilder's notes is a good reversal sign when over 60. and all other techs are way over-extended as everybody could clearly see.Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-57934753243299383462012-03-20T13:24:00.001+02:002012-03-20T13:25:28.473+02:00S&P 500 (SPX) - Calling it a Top<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ESQwqA5no3k/T2hnNYJAjuI/AAAAAAAABaw/YqCggDQqVtQ/s1600/2012.03.20+-+SPX+D.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="252" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ESQwqA5no3k/T2hnNYJAjuI/AAAAAAAABaw/YqCggDQqVtQ/s320/2012.03.20+-+SPX+D.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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S&P 500 Index and global stocks as a whole have been enjoying quite a fancy rally for the last 6 months since the Lows of October 2011.<br />
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I could skip the fact that the rally since Dec 2011 is unfolding in a perfect 5 waves pattern. I'm much more interested in my favorite Bollinger Bands that are quite overstretched just like any other technical indicator, pointing to the unsustainable state of the trend at these heights.<br />
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Seems to me we are back into the good old days (2004-2007) when we had the Carry trading in FX and all the stocks markets were fostered by the steady selling of YEN for all other higher yielding currencies.<br />
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I might just call it a hunch but I'm rather sure we witness a good correction at these lofty levels.Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-37626500652791710332012-03-12T11:24:00.002+02:002012-03-12T11:37:47.837+02:00YEN Crosses - Time to Rest & Reverse?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hTZWditzbFw/T12-PdxI4iI/AAAAAAAABaA/MYALGxSBbRY/s1600/2012.03.12+-+AUDJPY+W.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="175" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hTZWditzbFw/T12-PdxI4iI/AAAAAAAABaA/MYALGxSBbRY/s320/2012.03.12+-+AUDJPY+W.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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AUDJPY Weekly.<br />
Looks like H&S, doesn't it?<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PiATxRilh_E/T12-UPBV86I/AAAAAAAABaI/XoEnSpFEjrA/s1600/2012.03.12+-+AUDJPY+D.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="183" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PiATxRilh_E/T12-UPBV86I/AAAAAAAABaI/XoEnSpFEjrA/s320/2012.03.12+-+AUDJPY+D.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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AUDJPY Daily.<br />
Looking for 105 and below if the Resistance at 110 holds, however it seems like forming a lower Top. <br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0mSfEce7CF4/T12-ZzQSvEI/AAAAAAAABaQ/qOw7GPDFsWY/s1600/2012.03.12+-+EURJPY+W.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="175" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0mSfEce7CF4/T12-ZzQSvEI/AAAAAAAABaQ/qOw7GPDFsWY/s320/2012.03.12+-+EURJPY+W.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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EURJPY Weekly.<br />
Trend is still down. Ichimoku cloud is still making it hard for the Longs.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8uKCx1EzprY/T12-iNr_IRI/AAAAAAAABaY/14XD2iqYOe8/s1600/2012.03.12+-+EURJPY+D.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="194" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8uKCx1EzprY/T12-iNr_IRI/AAAAAAAABaY/14XD2iqYOe8/s320/2012.03.12+-+EURJPY+D.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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EURJPY Daily.<br />
Same here. Betting on Lower Top formation + overextended momentum technicals.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lbB9HO8lEJo/T12-n4nkNSI/AAAAAAAABag/iGaPQt9jRco/s1600/2012.03.12+-+GBPJPY+W.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="175" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lbB9HO8lEJo/T12-n4nkNSI/AAAAAAAABag/iGaPQt9jRco/s320/2012.03.12+-+GBPJPY+W.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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GBPJPY Weekly.<br />
Rather non-spectacular performance these last 2 years for "The Beast". Still under pressure.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vRvdyvDe4S4/T12-socjreI/AAAAAAAABao/7cIKP_xQuCU/s1600/2012.03.12+-+GBPJPY+D.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="190" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vRvdyvDe4S4/T12-socjreI/AAAAAAAABao/7cIKP_xQuCU/s320/2012.03.12+-+GBPJPY+D.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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GBPJPY Daily.<br />
Overextended techs and weak below the past Resistance levels around 130. Looking for a revisit of 126 at least.<br />
<br />Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-25209973995813199112012-03-08T17:52:00.002+02:002012-03-08T17:52:39.377+02:00S&P 500 (SPX) Index - Consolidation Range at the Top<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vuatdS7B-Hg/T1jTWg04I_I/AAAAAAAABZ4/FrpzR2u_2rM/s1600/2012.03.08+-+SPX+D.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vuatdS7B-Hg/T1jTWg04I_I/AAAAAAAABZ4/FrpzR2u_2rM/s320/2012.03.08+-+SPX+D.JPG" width="256" /></a></div>
SPX is trading inside the 1340 - 1360 consolidation Range after the reversal off the recent Top around 1377.<br />
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The SHORT Perspective::<br />
The Upside is Capped by the 20-Day MA. I have 1325 and 1280 as immediate Targets of the current correction. All Technical Indicators are in Reversal mode and below 1340-1325 I'd expect an acceleration of the current corrective move.<br />
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The LONG Perspective::<br />
The 20-Day MA at 1359 is the threshold - a Close above would signal price will need to touch the Upper BB at 1377. Still I'd view the current phase of the market as Horizontal consolidation and I'd expect the Bollinger Bands to show further contraction as the Distribution phase unwinds.Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-78807924436958384122012-03-05T18:32:00.001+02:002012-03-05T18:34:40.729+02:00Sold AAPL Short @ 542.92 / NASDAQ is on the verge of a breakdown.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Markets seemed to me rather overextended for quite some time. I was looking to a clear sign of a breakdown.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DHDyM4zBfTw/T1ToXqqQtZI/AAAAAAAABZg/5pjo3HTLvSk/s1600/2012.03.05+-+AAPL+W.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DHDyM4zBfTw/T1ToXqqQtZI/AAAAAAAABZg/5pjo3HTLvSk/s320/2012.03.05+-+AAPL+W.JPG" width="320" /> </a></div>
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AAPL Weekly chart suggests we see trend deceleration but the larger time frame does not give a clear signal.</div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NNkTo0NB_ts/T1TogsS9c8I/AAAAAAAABZo/hSxmUztcXYg/s1600/2012.03.05+-+AAPL+D.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="251" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NNkTo0NB_ts/T1TogsS9c8I/AAAAAAAABZo/hSxmUztcXYg/s320/2012.03.05+-+AAPL+D.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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AAPL Daily chart has a confluence of technical signs of a pending collapse so I sold it 2 hours after the Open at 542.92. Price has stalled and is currently trading inside the Bollinger Bands. Slow Stochastics are giving a warnign sign of weakness and my favorite ADX is giving a reversal sign with the Trending strength at 68.69 it looks like it has a limited potential to go much higher from current levels for the time being.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zdIJmIo1r1U/T1Tp-_gS3rI/AAAAAAAABZw/l0yZUs45q5U/s1600/2012.03.05+-+NASDAQ+D.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="251" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zdIJmIo1r1U/T1Tp-_gS3rI/AAAAAAAABZw/l0yZUs45q5U/s320/2012.03.05+-+NASDAQ+D.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
NASDAQ Composite Daily chart. While it might be nice for AAPL to be supported by the love of the whole world the NASDAQ is giving a clear sign of weakness and reversal is a matter of a few sessions. All techs are already in reversal mode and while typing this we are already -1.34% on the NASDAQ and -2.08% on AAPL.Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-48503682948482452352012-03-02T13:54:00.000+02:002012-03-02T13:55:51.813+02:00AAPL - my favorite SHORT candidate + Markets at critical juncture<div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;">
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<span id="goog_1482687544" style="font-size: small;">Calling tops is an ego play anyway I had this feeling we are at a critical juncture here and wanted to post a reminder and make a check on the broader picture and especially this, favorite to the whole world, super cool stock AAPL.</span><br />
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<span id="goog_1482687544" style="font-size: small;">Everybody loves Apple and everybody wants or already has iPhone / iPad / iPod / Apple TV and whatever this company produces. Checked the current P/E is 15 on BBG and it looks cheap. Anyway I like that everybody thinks it is a great company.</span><br />
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<span id="goog_1482687544" style="font-size: small;">Short float is only 1.14% which is great - don't like much company in the boat for now.. All analysts rate it Buy/Out/Overperform. So the whole world likes it and most probably has it.</span><br />
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<span id="goog_1482687544" style="font-size: small;">So what happens when everybody has it? There is nobody to buy and the price drops 15% in a day. </span><br />
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<span id="goog_1482687544" style="font-size: small;">I don't care when. I assume it might have a spike to 580/600 area which will develop into a Blow-off top and then there will be fun times for the shorts which I will be in.</span><br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3MHpJn50znM/T1CnLBCtlSI/AAAAAAAABZA/1Yo0atFMWlk/s1600/2012.03.02+-+AAPL+vs+SPX.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="254" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3MHpJn50znM/T1CnLBCtlSI/AAAAAAAABZA/1Yo0atFMWlk/s320/2012.03.02+-+AAPL+vs+SPX.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span id="goog_1482687544" style="font-size: small;">AAPL - Weekly chart has that super Bullish 8 last </span><span id="goog_1482687544" style="font-size: small;">candles </span><span id="goog_1482687544" style="font-size: small;">closing outside the Bollinger Bands and Volume supports the Trend. So I will wait for a close inside the BBands and a Blow-off top / Island reversal as a sign.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bP1KYLS2SO0/T1CnSjPMytI/AAAAAAAABZI/9mEx7ms2WIc/s1600/2012.03.02+-+AAPL.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="252" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bP1KYLS2SO0/T1CnSjPMytI/AAAAAAAABZI/9mEx7ms2WIc/s320/2012.03.02+-+AAPL.JPG" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<span id="goog_1482687544" style="font-size: small;">AAPL > Daily chart has all the Technical Indicators I use in an overextended mode. They only lack a Reversal sequence of a 3-5 days to turn down and signal the Top.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qhSyRiRYmMA/T1CnbI2G4_I/AAAAAAAABZQ/03-swCiWyYY/s1600/2012.03.02+-+Russel+2k.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="253" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qhSyRiRYmMA/T1CnbI2G4_I/AAAAAAAABZQ/03-swCiWyYY/s320/2012.03.02+-+Russel+2k.JPG" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">Russell 2000 Small Caps have been the out-performers in the last 2 years so once I see weakening here I assume we have to fold, go Short and Hold. Weekly chart has the price action already inside the BBands, and the rally stalling in front of the May & August 2011 Highs.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KCiZAcoNZEA/T1CnhGWQR8I/AAAAAAAABZY/ZqKSK6THU78/s1600/2012.03.02+-+Russel+2k+-+Daily.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="251" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KCiZAcoNZEA/T1CnhGWQR8I/AAAAAAAABZY/ZqKSK6THU78/s320/2012.03.02+-+Russel+2k+-+Daily.JPG" width="320" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Russell 2000 Daily chartshows clearly the encapsulation of the price inside a tight range which I assume as Distribution phase of the current 3 month rally. BBands has narrowed a lot which means congestion.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">I believe when markets reach an important levels like 13 000 Dow they would like to pause and go back for a happy retreat. It's that simple.</span></div>
<span id="goog_1482687544" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-47548773873237710132012-02-22T12:22:00.000+02:002012-02-22T12:25:45.053+02:00Global Macro: Stocks are poised to collapse on the back of rising Crude and Debt. USD a necessary evil.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RNj9nvS4pVo/T0S6u2RvCkI/AAAAAAAABX4/ko0o0bjFl-o/s1600/usdx.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RNj9nvS4pVo/T0S6u2RvCkI/AAAAAAAABX4/ko0o0bjFl-o/s320/usdx.JPG" width="320" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">ZeroHedge published an interesting piece on the US Debt to GDP ratio passing the 101% mark:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-debt-gdp-passes-101-global-debt-ponzi-enters-its-final-stages">http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-debt-gdp-passes-101-global-debt-ponzi-enters-its-final-stages</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">So it is imperative to see the implications on the USD Index as a representation of the credit in the world reserve currency. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wvUeopC5BW8/T0S7wmx7NhI/AAAAAAAABYA/JfPE_pYLjSc/s1600/usdx+1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="162" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wvUeopC5BW8/T0S7wmx7NhI/AAAAAAAABYA/JfPE_pYLjSc/s320/usdx+1.JPG" width="320" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Obviously on the grand scheme the US Dollar Index is right in the middle of nowhere - it's in the average of the 6 year range after staging an impressive rally in the second half of the 2011. Now we are puzzled which one is worse the printing press of the FED or the sanity of the EU monetary union. And as the chart says we are equally poised to avert both of them so we are left right in the middle.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">ZH shows that the FED debt monetisation is supported by the FED itself along with the next 2 most indebted global powers - UK & Japan. So what choise you are left if you want to diversify away from the Dollar?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">GBP? Look at the economy and the scale of Debt-to-GDP ratio?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">JPY? At the time it makes all time highs and the BOJ & MOF are desparate to weaken it through never ending interventions?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">EUR? With the Greeks and the Italians and the Irish and the Spaniards?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">How about Chinese RMB or Russian roubles?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Or simply buy Gold at the historic Highs and pray it is a true safe
haven in the time of pending inflation. The Debt monetisation of the FED
has been fueling the Stock rally in the last 3 months and the S&P
500 is making new High close to the H1 2011 High.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Problem is what stocks will do when commodities breakout on the upper end. Case in point Crude oil breaking above $105 and making things worse for the producers and transportation.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-u1eb7FHDHPg/T0S_nyo88dI/AAAAAAAABYQ/hdxGbOdVI1c/s1600/CL.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="164" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-u1eb7FHDHPg/T0S_nyo88dI/AAAAAAAABYQ/hdxGbOdVI1c/s320/CL.JPG" width="320" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">This simple fact finds an evidence in the classical technical analysis convergence between the <span style="background-color: white; color: black; display: inline ! important; float: none; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average which by the classic Dow Thoery are necessary to confirm each other and this obvious divergence calls for a breakdown.</span></span></div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7jyxGI1jV3M/T0TBinAvgwI/AAAAAAAABYY/Mvx3l10PCx4/s1600/djia+&+TRAN.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="148" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7jyxGI1jV3M/T0TBinAvgwI/AAAAAAAABYY/Mvx3l10PCx4/s320/djia+&+TRAN.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-48795851785791235222011-12-15T16:31:00.003+02:002011-12-15T16:31:46.143+02:00Защо пазарите имат значение? Или нямат?<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">11.12.2011<b style="font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">~ ~ ~<i style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Защо пазарите имат значение? Или нямат?<i><o:p></o:p></i></span></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">~ ~ ~<i style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">“Обикновените
хора” не се интересуват от пазарите. Когато случайно стане дума и ме питат с
какво се занимавам и отговоря, че търгувам с финансови инстументи, срещам много
интересен спектър от реакции.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Някои просто махат с ръка и казват “ооо, това е казино”
или “оф, ужас, това е толкова скучно”, за други е просто нещо объркано, трети
имат мнение за банкерите и финансистите, което не е ясно как точно е било
формирано, но е подчертано негативно. А с четвъртите ми е най-забавно. Вчера
имах характерен разговор с мой познат. Случайно стана дума, че се “занимавам” с
акции и валути и той каза “ей, ако знаеш, един познат преди време ми даваше
съвети и аз така се набутах с едни акции, че сега са си вечно мои”. Не питах от
любопитство. Само му казах “купувал си септември 2007, нали?” Много ми харесва
как после се учудват, че съм познал точно кога са се набутали. Чували сте
анекдотите за това какво да правите с акциите си ако и шофьорите на такси ви се
хвалят каква е доходността на портфейла им?<i style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Обикновените
хора не искат да се занимават със “сложни” неща като борсата, финансите и
подобни неща, в които има цифри. Особено цифри, които никога не спират да се
променят, както са котировките. Интересно е, обаче как като стигне до тях
слуха, че на борсата се правят луди пари, всеки изведнъж много иска да
инвестира. После стават дългосрочни инвеститори в активи, обезценили се с 90%.
Бакалската сметка е, че ако загубиш 90% от капитала си, после трябва да
направиш 900%, само за да се върнеш в началната точка. Титанично, а? Основният
принцип е на първо място никога да не си позволяваш да достигнеш до такава
титанично тъпа ситуация, но пък живота учи, че всичко е ясно, когато е късно.
После сме много мъдри, ама </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">ex</span><span lang="RU" style="font-size: 11pt;">-</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">post</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;">, казано на латински, за разкош.<b style="font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Друг
интересен факт е, представата на мнозинството, че всеки може лесно да се научи
да прави пари. Отваряш си сметка и почваш да търгуваш и готово. На практика,
обаче живота винаги ни връща към равновесната точка и излишъците и дефицитите
се балансират. Това е фундаменталния принцип на живота, който важи и на борсата
поради простата причина, че финансовите пазари не са нищо по различно от
кумулативна проекция на надеждите и страховете на хората. Затова и случващото
се на пазарите има значение, защото наблюдавайки емоциите на хората ние
научаваме много интересни неща за себе си, за егото ни, както и за
кумулативната емоция, която е завладяла света в момента.<b style="font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Знам, че е
трудно това да се смели. На баба ти на село не й пука за пазарите. Помисли
отново. Баба ти не е затворена система. Тя може да си издои мляко и да извади
картофи, но нали трябва да получи пенсия, например. Или да си купи хляб или
захар. Пенсията й освен от мизерната държава, зависи и от инфлацията, а
въпросната инфлация, не зависи само от конкретната държава, а и от световен
фактор като Федералния резерв (“Фед”, Централната банка на САЩ), който в
световен план определя цената на парите. Да погледнем една много проста
графика. Тя не само е проста, тя е просто красива, защото с един поглед казва
всичко, което е нужно да знаеш за случващото се в момента, за кризата, за
инфлацията, за Фед и за кумулативната емоция на хората в света.<b style="font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><b><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Златото.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"><a href="http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html">http<span lang="BG">://</span>goldprice<span lang="BG">.</span>org<span lang="BG">/</span>gold<span lang="BG">-</span>price<span lang="BG">-</span>history<span lang="BG">.</span>html</a></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Е, колко
сложно е да разбереш какво се случва в света като погледнеш тази графика? Като
погледнеш една планина как се издига нагоре и не те ли обзема лек страх, че
може и да я изкачиш до върха? Или като видиш една подобна огромна вълна да се
издига, не те ли е страх, че ще те смачка?<b style="font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Тази
графика казва точно това. Огромен страх. Хората ги е страх, понеже се печатат
пари и един ден това неминуемо ще се върне и ще ни захлупи като огромно цунами
под формата на инфлация. Първият “подскок” там към 80-та година е така наречения
петролен шок, това е било преди много години и няма да даваме повече графики,
които да покажат как цената на петрола се е качила и защо, но тогава инфлацията
много сериозно е уплашила хората и те се опитали да се “скрият” чрез златото.<b style="font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Има ли
значение това? Ти ако живееш с 1000-1500 лева и за месец всичко отива за наеми,
вечери, дрехи и партита и не спестяваш, к’во ти пука? Принципно и да ти пука
няма особено значение, понеже какво може да направиш? Нямаш милиони да се чудиш
как да предпазиш стойността им. Стойността, защотото както знаеш, 1 лев сега е
по-скъп от 1 лев след време заради тази въпросна инфлация. На по-възрастните им
пука понеже пенсиите им са във пенсионни фондове и тия фондове са управлявани
от живи хора, които по презумпция трябва да знаят как да ги управляват, но на
практика дали е така?<i style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Това е
като вица за бащата с 3 дъщери, където по принцип трябвало да са много богати
ама на практика... Не знам, в живота всичко е относително и се разбира в
отношение към нещо друго. Според Платон в древността, управляващите е трябвало
да са най-мъдрите от общността, за да направляват живота и в правилната посока.
Днес дали е така? А дали някога въобще, Това е разликата между реалността и
света на идеите. Света се формира по идеите на хората, които имат силата да ги
реализират, но това не означава, че непременно тези идеи, които ни харесват се
реализират. Нормално е тези, които са по-силни да формират света по техните
идеи.<i style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Отново за
златото. Един от настоящите хедж фонд звезди, Кайл Бас от Хайман Кепитъл, каза
в едно интервю от преди месец: “</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">Buying</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">gold</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">is</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">just</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">buying</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">a</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">put</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">against</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">the</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">idiocy</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">of</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">the</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">political</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">cycle</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;">. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">It</span><span lang="RU" style="font-size: 11pt;">'</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">s</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">That</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;">Simple</span><span lang="RU" style="font-size: 11pt;">"</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;">. На прост български
това означава, че купуваш злато като застраховка срещу идиотщината на
политическия цикъл (под </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">PUT</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> се има предвид Пут опция, което е деривативен
инструмент, който просто казано е застраховка, в случай, че те е страх, че
цената на даден актив, на “нещо”, ще падне). Толкова е просто. <b style="font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">В момента
живеем в много интересни времена. Китайците имат една поговорка, която беше
нещо от рода на “Да не дава бог да живееш в интересни времена”. Предполагам
идва от факта, че там от древността непрекъснато са се водили войни и с
победата на една или друга страна се е стигало да масови избивания. Четох скоро
в един исторически сайт за онези времена и бях шокиран да разбера, че след всеки
подобен интересен исторически момент населението е намалявало с примерно
60-70%. Подобно е било всъщност навсякъде, и в Европа и тн.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Ето линк: </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt;"><a href="http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/DBG.CHAP3.HTM">http<span lang="RU">://</span>www<span lang="RU">.</span>hawaii<span lang="RU">.</span>edu<span lang="RU">/</span>powerkills<span lang="RU">/</span>DBG<span lang="RU">.</span>CHAP<span lang="RU">3.</span>HTM</a></span><span style="font-size: 11pt;">. Нормално, всяка нова власт, която се издига върху
кръвта на предишните иска да заличи всички предишни спомени, както и паметта за
всичко, което е било преди това. За справка министерството на информацията по
Оруел в “1984”.<i style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">В момента
правителствата чрез централните банки “печатат” пари (сега вече не се печата
реално, понеже всичко се прави по електронен път), за да могат да стимулират
замръзналата кредитна състема, да финансрират дефицитите си и това просто създава
една огромна купчина пари, която обратно пропорционално губи своята стойност.
Твойте пари носят тази стойност и тя намалява с увеличението на общото
количеството. Поради тази причина и хората в 21-век търсят убежище в златото,
тази “варварска релкива”, както го нарича Лорд Джон Мейнърд Кейнс. Не ви пука
за Кейнс? Не е важно, просто този брилянтен джентълмен през Великата депресия
през 30-те ражда и развива идеите за намесата на държавата за балансиране на
икономическите процеси. Днес като чувате, че в криза трябва да се инвестира в
инфраструктура, мислете за Кейнс, не за ... даже няма и инициалите да пиша.<i style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Както и да
е. Всеки намира в живота нещо, което го интересува. Аз имам желанието да
споделя</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 11pt;">скромното си наблюдение как всичко е свързано. Пазарът е
просто един механизъм, който определя цена и стойност. Съвсем кратко искам да
подчертая, че цена и стойност са различни неща. Цената отразява емоцията, а
стойността трябва да е нещо фундаментално основано. Просто обяснено ако имаш
един ключ, който струва 1 лев и той е за клетката за осъден, то осъденият би
платил цена многократно по-висока от 1 лев, заради проекцията на стойността на
свободата, която този ключ би му позволил да купи.<b style="font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">От малки
ние използваме същия принцип, който намираме на пазарите. Когато вече с плач и
сополи не получаваме каквото искаме се научаваме, че трябва да намерим нещо
достатъчно ценно, за да го заменим за това, което искаме да придобием. Цената
на любовта? Принципно може да ни се струва безценна и съкровена. Да идеята за
любовта, предполагам е такава, но на практик? Това как точно е по-различно от
борсата? Ако има търсене на 30 лева и някой е готов да предложи на тази цена
удовлетворение – готово, имаме сделка. Едни активи се търгуват на 30, други на
3000. Зависи от проекцията на стойността, която купувача възприема.<b style="font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Всеки от
различните детайли, засегнати тук, е много повърхностно представен. Извинявам
се ако съм допуснал грешка и ще съм щастлив да науча за нея. Опитвам се да
представя просто една гледна точка, което естествено е един динамичен процес,
защото с годините ние както трупаме повече знание, така и променяме начина, по
който гледаме и оценяваме както знанието, така и реалността, две неща, които
често се разминават както цената и стойността.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Lucida Sans Unicode', sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-82126538233638108602011-12-07T22:18:00.001+02:002011-12-07T22:22:05.568+02:00AUD/USD: Selling against the 61.8% Fibonacci level<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yWrOKIp8N0U/Tt_KBQYX8KI/AAAAAAAABXo/OYzAt83PJEU/s1600/2011.12.07+-+AUDUSD+D+61.8+fib.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="187" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yWrOKIp8N0U/Tt_KBQYX8KI/AAAAAAAABXo/OYzAt83PJEU/s320/2011.12.07+-+AUDUSD+D+61.8+fib.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The rationale here is pretty clear. There is a pretty strong Resistance cluster at the 61.8% Fib at 1.0340 and the 200-Day MA at 1.0412.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Tentative selling here with a scope of the 23.4% Fib around 0.99.</span></div>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-71507135600906696752011-11-07T12:02:00.001+02:002011-11-07T12:02:56.877+02:00Breakout signal in Brazilian Gol Linhas Aereas (NYSE: GOL)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_iMThVHZ9RQ/Trer39zTEZI/AAAAAAAABW4/Ny7410U-wPs/s1600/2011.11.07+-+GOL+D+breakout.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="253" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_iMThVHZ9RQ/Trer39zTEZI/AAAAAAAABW4/Ny7410U-wPs/s320/2011.11.07+-+GOL+D+breakout.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma; font-size: 11px;">Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. (NYSE: GOL) operates as a low-cost low-fare airline in Latin America.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma; font-size: 11px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: #f9f9f9;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px;">Recently the major Brazilian airline TAM was pushed as a buy candidate by major bank research paper. However I like the price action in the minor airline and find the technical picture much more compelling. </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: #f9f9f9;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: #f9f9f9;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px;">The chart shows a breakout signal confirmed by a close above 8 with an immediate target at 10.40 and risk below 7.5 which gives a reasonable risk management profile of the trade setup.</span></span></span></div>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-52102477339152877082011-10-25T23:52:00.003+03:002011-10-25T23:59:01.834+03:00Fading the Euro Optimism<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jbxE0K_WzsQ/Tqcho7q_MUI/AAAAAAAABWI/XXZglYODz7M/s1600/2011.10.25%2B-%2BEURUSD%2BD%2B61.8fib.JPG"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5667535643165536578" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jbxE0K_WzsQ/Tqcho7q_MUI/AAAAAAAABWI/XXZglYODz7M/s320/2011.10.25%2B-%2BEURUSD%2BD%2B61.8fib.JPG" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 169px; width: 320px;" /></a><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">EUR/USD Daily chart looks like stalling at the 55-Day MA at 1.39 just shy of the 61.8% Fibo at 1.40.</span></div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Sur3BIgWvrI/TqchogDbGNI/AAAAAAAABV8/k6FWt2bmzj0/s1600/2011.10.25%2B-%2BEURJPY%2BD%2Bshort.JPG"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5667535635751835858" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Sur3BIgWvrI/TqchogDbGNI/AAAAAAAABV8/k6FWt2bmzj0/s320/2011.10.25%2B-%2BEURJPY%2BD%2Bshort.JPG" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 188px; width: 320px;" /></a></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">It seems like too much effort has been wasted on pulling that stunt so far - 5 days in row tight range and with usd/jpy finally dropping to punish all those easy believers in the BOJ magic + the dissapointment of the EU summit time looks ripe for some reaction.<br /><br />In addition the 55-Day MA at 106.74 doesn't look like easy beam to hop above.</span></div>
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<br /></div>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-29468962749714034322011-10-14T00:30:00.003+03:002011-10-14T02:12:46.690+03:00FX Majors ( € ~ £ ~ ¥ ) ::: Trading the RANGE<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white;">Kapri Just entered those positions based on the assumption we are trading in the established range:<br /><br />Short EUR/USD 1.3782<br />Short GBP/USD 1.5768<br />Long USD/JPY 76.88<br /><br />Risk on a breach & close above </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white;">yesterday </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white;">Highs & Lows respectively, so looking to add in that space until the inflection point is not compromised.</span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: #e4e4e4;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: #e4e4e4;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> ~ ~ ~ </span></span></div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZT5xp7CI3hM/TpdSbA0qM6I/AAAAAAAABVg/ZM4fINvSVnY/s1600/2011.10.13+-+EURUSD+H+Range.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZT5xp7CI3hM/TpdSbA0qM6I/AAAAAAAABVg/ZM4fINvSVnY/s320/2011.10.13+-+EURUSD+H+Range.JPG" width="320" /></span></a></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">EUR/USD</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Daily chart show 1.3850 as a major Resistance level (50% of 1.4555 - 1.3147).</span></div>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6XjrxetPuRk/TpdSbyX9E5I/AAAAAAAABVo/aI-M0sN6nTg/s1600/2011.10.13+-+GBPUSD+H+Range.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><img border="0" height="198" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6XjrxetPuRk/TpdSbyX9E5I/AAAAAAAABVo/aI-M0sN6nTg/s320/2011.10.13+-+GBPUSD+H+Range.JPG" width="320" /></span></a></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Daily chart show 1.5789 as a major Resistance level (38.2% of 1.6627 - 1.5272).</span></div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R04x7cqtx0g/TpdScJUZhXI/AAAAAAAABVw/fBe9H9BtWRk/s1600/2011.10.13+-+USDJPY+4H+Range.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><img border="0" height="188" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R04x7cqtx0g/TpdScJUZhXI/AAAAAAAABVw/fBe9H9BtWRk/s320/2011.10.13+-+USDJPY+4H+Range.JPG" width="320" /></span></a></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">USD/JPY</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Yen finally started moving after the extremely tight range congestion in the last 2 weeks.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Yen has appreciated to multi-year highs and MOF/BOJ wouldn't be feeling comfortable with these levels, hence the fear in the market with an FX market intervention. Given that premise the LONG side is favored.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white;">One can use both the 76.30 and 76.78 as SL levels - or one could average till 75 if the price goes that way on the assumption the BOJ will defend those multi year lows in USD/JPY.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-11432618486853018602011-10-12T13:12:00.002+03:002011-10-13T16:43:12.293+03:00EUR/USD & GBP/USD Rally's Resistance Ahead<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SKGu7RXLU9U/TpVmjlJcpUI/AAAAAAAABVY/339Y-rCaZmg/s1600/2011.10.12.+-+EUR%2526GBP+Res.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="187" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SKGu7RXLU9U/TpVmjlJcpUI/AAAAAAAABVY/339Y-rCaZmg/s400/2011.10.12.+-+EUR%2526GBP+Res.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Market looks very short the contis and that is reflected in those over-extended moves in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. It might be short covering and stop hunting.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just as a reference we have solid Resistance areas ahead and majors are very close to these inflection points.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">> Resistance layer on EUR/USD is between 1.3836 (July Low) and 1.3855 (50% of 1.4560-1.3149).<br /><br />> Resistance area on GBP/USD Res at 1.5778 (July Low) and 1.5837 (Upper Bollinger Band).</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Daily ranges are over extended based on historical averages so I'm fading these moves with low leverage.</span>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-58434569300062247652011-10-05T10:28:00.002+03:002011-10-05T10:30:30.797+03:00History repeats itself<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-21AnBoocyNI/TowHRikiizI/AAAAAAAABVU/VAnQZRX5EFo/s1600/spx.JPG" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 226px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-21AnBoocyNI/TowHRikiizI/AAAAAAAABVU/VAnQZRX5EFo/s320/spx.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5659906829617105714" /></a><br /><div><br /></div><div>If you ever wondered if it is true that History repeats itself, check this out:</div><div><br /></div><div><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="797" style="width:598.0pt;border-collapse:collapse;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184; mso-padding-alt:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"> <tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes;height:15.0pt"> <td width="700" valign="top" style="width:525.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:15.0pt"> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; color:black">On </span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; color:red">Oct 3, 2008</span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";color:black">, SPX closed at </span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:red">1099.23.</span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="mso-yfti-irow:1;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes;height:15.0pt"> <td width="700" valign="top" style="width:525.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:15.0pt"> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; color:black">On </span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; color:red">Oct 3, 2011</span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";color:black">, SPX closed at </span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:red">1099.23.</span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </td> </tr></tbody></table></div><div><br /></div>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-40752220880407424702011-08-19T12:33:00.004+03:002011-08-19T12:36:17.515+03:00The Pound's trend is intact - GBPUSD immediate target at 1.68<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6GamNSQeUuk/Tk4uFTOXZFI/AAAAAAAABVM/h0dI9sM8eXw/s1600/2011.08.19%2B-%2BGBPUSD.JPG" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 186px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6GamNSQeUuk/Tk4uFTOXZFI/AAAAAAAABVM/h0dI9sM8eXw/s320/2011.08.19%2B-%2BGBPUSD.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5642498051736560722" /></a>
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<br /></div><div>Stochastics and trend channel all point to trend continuation with an immediate target around 1.68.</div>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-19762459623716300202011-08-05T16:58:00.001+03:002011-08-05T16:59:37.222+03:00Crude oil - Gold Spread at Historical High<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dBr7F-RHXeQ/Tjv3C7STXvI/AAAAAAAABVE/QrTbKKhsvSU/s1600/2011.08.05%2B-%2BCL-GC%2BSpread.JPG" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 195px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dBr7F-RHXeQ/Tjv3C7STXvI/AAAAAAAABVE/QrTbKKhsvSU/s320/2011.08.05%2B-%2BCL-GC%2BSpread.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5637370988230565618" /></a><br /><div>Spread is going big - something has to give.</div>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6558291806105444595.post-32355219446090946912011-08-05T14:23:00.002+03:002011-08-05T14:27:46.193+03:00Dr. Copper & Emerging Markets<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fmOQLc98Wio/TjvSrTY-iaI/AAAAAAAABU8/BZOZTjTud58/s1600/2011.08.05%2B-%2BCopper-EMs.JPG" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 176px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fmOQLc98Wio/TjvSrTY-iaI/AAAAAAAABU8/BZOZTjTud58/s320/2011.08.05%2B-%2BCopper-EMs.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5637330999965551010" /></a><br /><div>The tightest correlation of Copper is with the S&P and Brazil looks like digging deeper after the yesterday's market rout.</div>Kaprikornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10766482267347200672noreply@blogger.com0