Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Daily EURCHF chart - several things to keep the attention to the downside:

> the original trendline was already broken and upward momentum is slowing -- price is near the Channel bottom around 1.6485 - will wait to see a confirmed break of the line (close under the line and a lower open)

> we have a Shooting star pattern signalling the recent reversal

> RSI is showing Bearish divergence and looking down

> Directional Movement (9 period) is the last indicator to confirm the slide here

> 20 day MA & 34 day EMA are almost flat- prone to turn downwards..

>>> Most obvious Target is the 1.6300 level - - 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upmove (1.5930 - 1.65..) & also a previous Top

I actually shorted EURJPY at 163.65 (risk was at 80) - - so here I present some channels drawn on 4 hours chart

targets are located at 163 figure and 162.50 where the lower channel line comes.. however I think to take profit around 163.15...

Hello! This is Daily EURJPY chart - hard to decide here as indicators are not in their extreme values and also the price is in the middle of the upward channel..

Trendline analysis tells me the steeper uptrend was broken - now we have a consolidation channel where the direction is still on the upside but the momentum is slightly waning...

MACD is coming down but notice the red line (MACD) is closing on the Signal line as if it wants to cross it back to the upside.. Historigram is supporting this scenario.

Directional Movement (9) is however still looking for the downside with the +DI pointing lower and the spread increasing... I assume if we have a close and open higher than 163.80 it might signal a move above the 164 psychological line..

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

short term trade (2 hour chart) - long EURJPY at 163.63 - - rationale:

> bounced off Trend line support
> +DI is about to cross -DI from below
> MACD has crossed from below and is close to the crossing the central line
> 20; 40; 65 MAs are all tightly clustered and I guess this points that they are all pointing at a pivot zone/level where the price is rotaing around in the present consolidation

in the same time USDJPY is very bullish - breaking the Feb 23 high at 121.61...

Friday, May 11, 2007

My sell side scenario proved right - the channel consolidation indeed resulted in continuation of the larger reversal - - at the present chart we see a breakdown from the reversal channel at 161.74

>> MACD has reversed and its position signals strength in the momentum

>> Directional Movement (9) adds confidence to the sell scenario with ADX at 37.5 and rising giving additional confirmation that the downfall momentum is rising..

targets remain the 23.6% fibo - 160.59 / 38.2& fibo - 158.70

Thursday, May 10, 2007

there is an interesting development to that trade:

technically we are correcting in a small channel within the greater downward channel

the new Directional Movement indicator I experiment with is giving signs of move upmove momentum in place... DI+ is high above after crossing the DI- from below and the ADX line is well into 29 to 30 levels - thus indicating strength in current corrective move.. I watch for a possible reversal - - if not the chart pattern I describe below will be negated..

the scenario at present I view as a FLAG configuration which implies a continuation of the recently started reversal - - thus a bounce off the small channel top around 162.95 and a breakdown through the lower channel line around 162.30/40

Tuesday, May 8, 2007

EURJPY 4h - 08 May 2007

I target the 23.6% fibo - 160.59 &
38.2% - 158.71
notice the MACD divergence - sowly trending to the 0 line while the pair is consolidating in the highs..