Wednesday, September 10, 2008

SOFIX and BG Stock Exchange

well my secong or maybe third attempt to long the SOFIX shares proved another failure and I exited in the end of August 2008 with a 30% loss.

I tried to long CHIM /6C4 at below 7.95 - had 10 000 shares at that price and then some 2000 more in the 8.70 and 8.50 area -- unfortunately the move was weak and I even had to sell from 8.35 till 7.95 so it was a failure again.

The big stake of 8800 share in EUBG/4EH I had for a repo-credit that I bought around 5.20 I had to sell around 4.80.

FIB / 5F4 also was weak and I sold it around 5.85 but now it looks better and holds above 6...

I watch the main indices close as I'm very intereseted how the post bubble effects will affect the market.

4 September 2008 -- Black Swan upon me -- 55k USD loss

it was Sept 4, 2008 when i was struck by the Black Swan event.

I lost all my trading stake of 55 000 USD in blink of an eye on a 'sure trade'

the event: I longed eurusd & gbpusd at the session lows after they had both descented 200+ pips so I felt pretty sure I would get a little profit riding the quick retracement

needless to say I was stupid enough not to use stops!!!

for a minute the prices backed down so I loaded more to a 1 mio per both positions - then once they reached breakeven they both stalled -- then I thought 'they are pretty weak maybe I'd better sqaure here and wait and see'

well I didn't square - instead they started free-falling and I kept buying until I had 5 mio Long GBPUSD and 3 mio long EURUSD and then they just kept falling until the dayly range extended to the surprizing 300+ pips in both...

pretty unusual event -- but that doesn't excuse my mistake not to manage my risk thru stops!

well what can I say - just as I fel sure in myself and I thought I had a basic system to trade I lost it all - now again I have to start from a scratch

in the last 6-7 months I turned 10k stake into 57k and it would be even greater since I drew on the account around 21k...
nominal return was 550%
well man, next time please do it better!