Thursday, March 22, 2012

BAC - The next great Short

Bank of America Corporation / BAC - 1st in Volume traded and 45 in Market Cap.
Seems everybody wanna see $10. I myself see overextended move on falling Volume. What more could I ask besides 1.42% Short float?

Looks like a great Short to do.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

AAPL begs to go SHORT

The favorite stock of the investing world and the favorite company of all the 'other' world is now paying dividend. It's on a massive extended trend and above 600 now. It's like everything is just fine and it will go to the Moon. I like that. I like that everybody likes AAPL and wants or already has it. This is why I wanna go Short around here.

ADX based on Wilder's notes is a good reversal sign when over 60. and all other techs are way over-extended as everybody could clearly see.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

S&P 500 (SPX) - Calling it a Top

S&P 500 Index and global stocks as a whole have been enjoying quite a fancy rally for the last 6 months since the Lows of October 2011.

I could skip the fact that the rally since Dec 2011 is unfolding in a perfect 5 waves pattern. I'm much more interested in my favorite Bollinger Bands that are quite overstretched just like any other technical indicator, pointing to the unsustainable state of the trend at these heights.

Seems to me we are back into the good old days (2004-2007) when we had the Carry trading in FX and all the stocks markets were fostered by the steady selling of YEN for all other higher yielding currencies.

I might just call it a hunch but I'm rather sure we witness a good correction at these lofty levels.

Monday, March 12, 2012

YEN Crosses - Time to Rest & Reverse?

AUDJPY Weekly.
Looks like H&S, doesn't it?

Looking for 105 and below if the Resistance at 110 holds, however it seems like forming a lower Top.

EURJPY Weekly.
Trend is still down. Ichimoku cloud is still making it hard for the Longs.

Same here. Betting on Lower Top formation + overextended momentum technicals.

GBPJPY Weekly.
Rather non-spectacular performance these last 2 years for "The Beast". Still under pressure.

Overextended techs and weak below the past Resistance levels around 130. Looking for a revisit of 126 at least.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

S&P 500 (SPX) Index - Consolidation Range at the Top

SPX is trading inside the 1340 - 1360  consolidation Range after the reversal off the recent Top around 1377.

The SHORT Perspective::
The Upside is Capped by the 20-Day MA. I have 1325 and 1280 as immediate Targets of the current correction. All Technical Indicators are in Reversal mode and below 1340-1325 I'd expect an acceleration of the current corrective move.

The LONG Perspective::
The 20-Day MA at 1359 is the threshold - a Close above would signal price will need to touch the Upper BB at 1377. Still I'd view the current phase of the market as Horizontal consolidation and I'd expect the Bollinger Bands to show further contraction as the Distribution phase unwinds.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Sold AAPL Short @ 542.92 / NASDAQ is on the verge of a breakdown.

Markets seemed to me rather overextended for quite some time. I was looking to a clear sign of a breakdown.
 AAPL Weekly chart suggests we see trend deceleration but the larger time frame does not give a clear signal.

AAPL Daily chart has a confluence of technical signs of a pending collapse so I sold it 2 hours after the Open at 542.92. Price has stalled and is currently trading inside the Bollinger Bands. Slow Stochastics are giving a warnign sign of weakness and my favorite ADX is giving a reversal sign with the Trending strength at 68.69 it looks like it has a limited potential to go much higher from current levels for the time being.

NASDAQ Composite Daily chart. While it might be nice for AAPL to be supported by the love of the whole world the NASDAQ is giving a clear sign of weakness and reversal is a matter of a few sessions. All techs are already in reversal mode and while typing this we are already -1.34% on the NASDAQ and -2.08% on AAPL.

Friday, March 2, 2012

AAPL - my favorite SHORT candidate + Markets at critical juncture

Calling tops is an ego play anyway I had this feeling we are at a critical juncture here and wanted to post a reminder and make a check on the broader picture and especially this, favorite to the whole world, super cool stock AAPL.

Everybody loves Apple and everybody wants or already has iPhone / iPad / iPod / Apple TV and whatever this company produces. Checked the current P/E is 15 on BBG and it looks cheap. Anyway I like that everybody thinks it is a great company.

Short float is only 1.14% which is great - don't like much company in the boat for now.. All analysts rate it Buy/Out/Overperform. So the whole world likes it and most probably has it.

So what happens when everybody has it? There is nobody to buy and the price drops 15% in a day. 

I don't care when. I assume it might have a spike to 580/600 area which will develop into a Blow-off top and then there will be fun times for the shorts which I will be in.

AAPL - Weekly chart has that super Bullish 8 last candles closing outside the Bollinger Bands and Volume supports the Trend. So I will wait for a close inside the BBands and a Blow-off top / Island reversal as a sign.

AAPL >  Daily chart  has all the Technical Indicators I use in an overextended mode. They only lack a Reversal sequence of a 3-5 days to turn down and signal the Top.

Russell 2000 Small Caps have been the out-performers in the last 2 years so once I see weakening here I assume we have to fold, go Short and Hold. Weekly chart has the price action already inside the BBands, and the rally stalling in front of the May & August 2011 Highs.

Russell 2000 Daily chartshows clearly the encapsulation of the price inside a tight range which I assume as Distribution phase of the current 3 month rally. BBands has narrowed a lot which means congestion.

I believe when markets reach an important levels like 13 000 Dow they would like to pause and go back for a happy retreat. It's that simple.