Monday, July 13, 2009

EUR/USD - October 2008 Gap - 1.3746

EUR/USD is near the Trendline Support and below is the all important 1.3746 Support which can be tracked back to the October 2008 Gap - seems a pivotal level which if breached would target the 200-DMA at 1.3313

13.07.2009 - A Truly Fantastic Day to Remember

*** Magic of Life unveils its illuminous beauty for me to feel the ultimate dazzlement.

I friend of mine that I have never seen in live gave me a second start and I am coming back to get down to some business. * ( :p :p ) *

--- I love the craft I studied so hard all day for the last 3 years - starting in the end of 2006 by reading GVI Pro side and later on by the mentorship of the great person and professional trader and educator AL.

>>> I started long ago in Oct 2002 to look and read int eh internet forums on Forex trading as it was the cheapest trading opportunity to start with as the minimum was $500 for a mini account.

My path started by my quest to learn Technical Analysis and in the first years I was constantly looking to understand the correlations and which forces affected the market.

Then I was operating by the illusion that there were forces who can move the market and people who definately know what and when happens and why. I was reading the news and all kind of analysis and was looking for the "holy grail" as Jay likes to describe it.

I spend money on subscribing to OilMan's signal service, then I made big losses on some pattern recognition software program offered by my broker.

It was around the end of Spring 2007 when I first started to think independently and beleive in my own analysis. Later on in the summer I read Way of the Turtle by Curtis Faith and Trend Following by Michael Covel. I also read the 3 tomes of Market Wizards by Jack Schwager and especially Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

These books totally changed my perception on trading and markets. Above all I started thinking of my trading approach and I realized my way was to identify the style and system that was fit to my personality and that I trusted to generate consistent returns.

Those experiments and learning experiences - both reading and interacting with pro traders in the forum and the everyday trading enhanced my learning curve and in the Spring of 2008 I broke even over all my previous losses and started being profitable every week and month.

First my trading was purely technical using daily patterns in Yen flows and common sense technical breakouts out of consolidations and thru trend line Support and Resistance levels.

Later on thru the influence of my Dutch friend I focused on the Average Daily Ranges and started using huge leverage when the extremes in the Average Daily Ranges were touched and played for small but "sure" gains on convergence of the overextended moves out of the Average range back into it.

That reaped goood profits and my account was steadily rising until Aug 2008 when I went long at the seemingly lucrative bottom of a 300+pip drop in the British Pound. I started with 500k lot and averaged down until my whole position was 5 mio. The Range then went on to another extreme of 450+ pips and my account was wiped out.

Later on I tried around 15 times with gradually diminishing stakes to get back my losses in the period Sept 2008 - June 2009. This includes the 2 months (Oct, Nov 2008) I spent in Wudang Mountain, Hubei Province, China.

Today 13.07.2009 - a wire was sento to me from a Dutch friend who was generous enough to help me get a second start in the professional occupaion I have chosen in 2006 when I resing my career in PR and Advertising.

I am developing a rule set for my trading system - those will include:

1. System basic rules for identification of trend/range mode
2. Rules for entry and exit
3. Money management rules for betting size and modifying the risk percentage per trade in relation to the winning/losing streak (Anti-Martingale / Kelly Criterion)
4. Psychological rules - when to trade and when to have a break..

_____ ______ _____ ______ ______ ______ _____ ______ ____ _____

Apart from trading rules I get back to basic principles of balanced life with are:

> Professional occupation
> Training practice and daily meditataion
> Education and continuous Study - IPS degree finalisation > MS.F destination research
> Emotional balance


Apart from that so interesting facts...

last year once my bill form the supermarket was 6.66 BGN.

Last week I bought some thing and the bill was 7.77. On Friday I closed 2 trades and the total equity was $66.66.

Have a nice life, winner.

Saturday, July 11, 2009

EUR/USD Seasonality - Monthly chart

Here is clearly shown the EURUSD is slowly grinding up - just to see resistance at the 21-month MA which is evident from the chart that has a pivotal role...

if the seasonality patterns could provide a guidance we might either have an exhaustive upsurge and then drop or we drop right away...

the most difficult scenario is to have an uptrend once a monthly close above 1.44/45 materializes..
Large traders(green COT) are builidng long positions - that makes an uptrend possible..

Secular Trends in the US Stock Market (DJIA 1897 - Present)

Friday, July 10, 2009

Timeless quotes by Baron Rothschild

  • Nataniel Mayer Victor Rothschild, 3rd Baron Rothschild:
  • "It requires a great deal of boldness and a great deal of caution to make a great fortune; and when you have got it, it requires ten times as much wit to keep it."
  • "When there is blood on the street, I am buying."
  • "I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, ...The man that controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply."
  • "Faithfully guard your reputation."
  • "Never have anything to do with an unlucky place, or an unlucky man. I have seen many clever men, very clever men, who had not shoes to their feet. I never act with them. Their advice sounds very well, but they cannot get on themselves; and if they cannot do good to themselves, how can they do good to me?"
  • "Make few acquaintances."
  • On purchasing power of currencies: "I believe that money owed by one country to another, or one country to banks, or whatever it is… it will never be paid back. It could only be paid back by borrowing more, which is the same thing… it won’t be paid back. The situation is what it is. Loans were… loans were made to South America… practical none have or will be reimbursed. The countries were broke. So… or to Africa, so it has to be consolidated… if it’s done by banks, it has to be consolidated by governments.

    Q.- But is there a risk of massive deflation? Will, for instance, Canada and the United States that owe a lot of their money to foreign banks in Japan or elsewhere… can they go broke?

    R.- No… it doesn’t work that way. If you look historically, you realize that borrowing and at the later stage government borrowing, or borrowing from one country to another on the virtual governmental level, something that has always existed that has grown ever since, I don’t know… King Solomon, with his silver mines in Israel or in Palestine. And it has never been reduced… the total volume of indebtedness has grown faster or slower, depending on time, but it has never disappeared… it has never been contracted. Impossible. What happens is… as time goes on, currencies go down. Now I’m not talking about the currency of one versus the other. I’m talking of… the…( byuing power) - Baron Rothschild

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Crude Oil leads the Correction lower, EUR/USD lags but follows the correlation

I'm sure the chart is clear enough in stating the obvious tight correlation between the EUR/USD and Crude Oil.
Especially since March 2009 both instruments were in a lock step march to new mid term highs . Now however after witnessing a few fake breakouts above 1.4177 in EUR/USD and 1.6660 in GBP/USD the USD Bulls are gaining control and the Crude Oil Aug 09 contract is correcting lower.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

USD/CAD Uptrend Channel

This is an update to a previously posted chart of htis trading setup.

Now that we have a broken Trendline Resistance from March 2009 High - it turns a Support level. Noting the recent Uptrend Channel suppot line is intersecting the Resistant line around 1.1560 where I would like to see thr daily lows so that the trend upwards remains intact.