Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Global Macro: Stocks are poised to collapse on the back of rising Crude and Debt. USD a necessary evil.

ZeroHedge published an interesting piece on the US Debt to GDP ratio passing the 101% mark:

So it is imperative to see the implications on the USD Index as a representation of the credit in the world reserve currency.

Obviously on the grand scheme the US Dollar Index is right in the middle of nowhere - it's in the average of the 6 year range after staging an impressive rally in the second half of the 2011. Now we are puzzled which one is worse the printing press of the FED or the sanity of the EU monetary union. And as the chart says we are equally poised to avert both of them so we are left right in the middle.

ZH shows that the FED debt monetisation is supported by the FED itself along with the next 2 most indebted global powers - UK & Japan. So what choise you are left if you want to diversify away from the Dollar?

GBP? Look at the economy and the scale of Debt-to-GDP ratio?
JPY? At the time it makes all time highs and the BOJ & MOF are desparate to weaken it through never ending interventions?
EUR? With the Greeks and the Italians and the Irish and the Spaniards?
How about Chinese RMB or Russian roubles?

Or simply buy Gold at the historic Highs and pray it is a true safe haven in the time of pending inflation. The Debt monetisation of the FED has been fueling the Stock rally in the last 3 months and the S&P 500 is making new High close to the H1 2011 High.

Problem is what stocks will do when commodities breakout on the upper end. Case in point Crude oil breaking above $105 and making things worse for the producers and transportation.

This simple fact finds an evidence in the classical technical analysis convergence between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average which by the classic Dow Thoery are necessary to confirm each other and this obvious divergence calls for a breakdown.