Sunday, January 31, 2010

Bond Spreads - flattening doens bode well for economic recovery

Weekly chart show bond yields are trading in ranges. While it's easily visible in the 2-Year UST Bills - the 10-Year Notes are still trading inside 3.20 - 3.85 area.

10-Year Notes however in my opinion are trending higher as we now have covered the December 2009 Gap and holding above the 40-Week MA. Historical charts show evidence that since the high inflation times of the '80-ies and Paul Volcker Bond prices are still in their historical high end range and if markets are indeed mean reverting in their nature Yields are going to go up further. The timing of the exit strategy by the Fed that will signal the tightening phase is impossible for me to suggest.

The 2Y/10Y Bond Spread Steepener trade in December 2009 has fully reversed its course into Flattening one since start of 2010. When we look at the Weekly chart of the Spread we can observe the trend channel and its a flattening one and this seems to bode ill for the economic recovery that we witnessed in the latest US GDP release.

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