Sunday, May 16, 2010

SOFIX testing first Support at 398-399

Following the Feb 25, 2010 post:

SOFIX is still trending down and last week just broke the previous low and tested the 398 Support level. Technically the index is moving inside the Trend Channel which is the first Support at 398-399 is broken decisively with a close below will run into the Critical Support area at 360-344 where the Trendline support confluence is located.

That scenario depends on the breakdown of the 398 level but since we just run into the SELL in May and Go Away mentality and the S&P crashed ahead of the 50-Day MA (1174) Resistance it is most probably that we are back to the global correlation on the way down (since we kinda missed the move up that most of the Developed and Emerging Markets enjoyed).

The important spot below 399 is the August 2009 Gap (360-380) which is begging to be filled by any textbook example. So the focus is if the confluence of the 344 support and the Trend channel bottom will provide the sufficient cushion for a reversal.

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