Saturday, June 19, 2010

GOLD: 'Trend Is Your Friend'

Moving nicely inside the Up-Trend channel.
Note that the Commercials' and the Large Speculators' positions has been perfectly aligned for this trend continuation to run smoothly since the Lows in early 2004. It is important to note that Commercials are actually increasing their hedging short positions and close to the size when they first probed the 1248 High in late 2009. A basic view would be that they try to lock in as much volume at the present price levels as they are able to.

Interesting fact is that according to The World Gold Council the largest Gold Reserves holder is the US with 8 133 tonnes which represents 70.4% of its reserves.

This chart reminds every trend has an end where it bends. No way I would call it as we never know where a trend might end up especially as I wouldn't rule out a squeeze and a blow off top phase once the 1260 level is decisively taken out. Both RSI and Momentum show strength in the trend now and MAs are confirming the strong inertia the move has gathered. That's why as Physics laws rule we shouldn't go in the way of a body that has gathered such power along its motion course.
Now I mentioned the END as this Rising Wedge I have drawn is just an assumption and should be monitored for confirmation as it has strong Bearish implications. However I would look for a blow-off top first.

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