Friday, January 7, 2011

Global Macro Update

S&P 500 started to decline after reaching overextended level of complacency. While the pullback was much expected we must see 1235/40 broken to look for a bigger slide.

10-Year Notes have been in an oversold state for quite some time and need to hold above 119 for a move higher. There is a case for higher yields on the back of better employment data released this week however with the pending slide in Equities I'd look for a flight to quality pushing the Notes higher into the 121 level.

Increased Volatility in Precious Metals suggests a possible Distribution phase is in progress.
Price action around 1355 would determine the Short term sentiment in Gold.

Dr. Copper as traders call it is leading the Equities cycle and is still strong however just like S&P it is in pullback mode and we should monitor 420 and then 410 levels to offer support.
Last week's news of the large trader holding approximately 85% of LME's Copper is interesting and points to a possible squeeze just like the large exposure of the GLD ETF to physical Gold price might severely affect the price action once the public participation starts to fade and the holdings are started unwinding.

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