Friday, March 4, 2011

Global Macro Trends persist unnerved by the political tensions

Weekly S&P 500 chart has a pending Golden Cross (50 x 200 Week MA upside crossing).
FED's QE2 is fueling cash in the equities market. The index is a bit overstretched above the 50-Week MA and a possible test of the Golden Cross levels - approximately 10% correction to 1175 - 1200.

Dr. Copper is alive and kicking as global growth is recovering boosted by the Central Banks' persistence in keeping the loose money policy.

Crude Oil is sustaining a break above the psychological $100 mark. Next target lies at around $112 with technical indicators supporting the bullish case for Oil.

Gold is testing the all time High around $1440 and might correct till $1360-80 to test the long term trend line Support.

Silver is a bit overstretched above the 50-Week MA and testing the Trendline Resistance at current levels ~ 34.50. At this level I'd watch for a possible fake break and correction to 26-24 levels where the Long term Support should hold the present Trend.

US Dollar Index (DX) is trading right at the Long term Support trend line at 76.40-50.
FED's policy isn't signalling any hints of tightening and the debt buying program is weighting on the USD value. Below 76 level the trend should accelerate.

The 30-Year UST Bond is trading right at the 200-Week MA which held the last 5 tests on the downside. QE2 program is still in action so I'd be cautious on breaks below as I see limited downside until June '11 after which it will important to see the market reaction as the bond king Bill Gross asked who will buy the US debt after FED stops the POMOs.

The 2Year - 10Year Bond Spread is currently Bullishly steepened which suggests more economic growth and spell bullish sign for the equities.

The longer end of the yield curve - the 10Year-30Year Bond Spread has also violently reversed and steepened in the end of 2010 which supports the bullish case for the equity markets so far.

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