EURUSD Daily chart:
Following the better than expected IFO data the EURUSD surged to an intraday High 1.2992, just shy of Wednesday’s Ben Bernanke induced whipsaw High 1.2997. While that sparked a lot of EUR buying against the USD and on the other EUR crosses the overall USD strength is still present as the GBPUSD and AUD USD lagged that counter trend move.
Technically the EURUSD is running into a very solid layer of Resistance: the 50-Day MVA is right at 1.2980 and above it is the 20-Day MVA at 1.30 which would be a tough level to break. The move up would be only confirmed by a close above 1.3040-50 which a more important level based on the previous chart points.
While my view is biased towards a down trend continuation there is a counter argument based on the turning Momentum represented by the buy signal generated by the Stochastic Oscillator and the fact that the recent Low around 1.28 is actually higher than the previous Lows around 1.2750 made in the start of March.