Sunday, March 2, 2008

EURJPY 29.02.2008 - Anatomy of a missed opportunity..

* This is here to mark a great missed trade I had planned but failed to execute.
Given the AB = CD measured move - it's obvious that the first move 152 - 159.50 yielded ~750 pips -- so original idea was to short the second move that started at 154 and its measured target TURN level was 161.50.
>> Actual High was 161.40! So much in hindsight. Missed opportunity that is.
* The 4-hour EURJPY chart confirms the strong resistance by the Descending Resitance trendline.
The Daily USDJPY chart presents the other missed trade which is based on the failure to hold above the 20 dayMA.
This is reinforced by the breakdown of the Bearish flag consolidation inside the major downward channel - nicely outlined in the chart!
Finally a word on LABOURED move >>> EURJPY initial move 152-159.50 was a swift one -- then in contrast the 154 - 161.40 move came in a slow and LABOURED manner.
My initial response to the chart was hesitation! When in reality is should have been a dramatic reinforcement of my CONVICTION in the feasibility of this trade.
Then I got the answer in the wisdom of a friend I regard as my FX trading mentor who was generous enough to share his knowledge with me! Here is in short what a LABOURED move represents:
> means trapped longs - not willing to turn round
> yes the shorts capitulated and become longs
> now they will buy all the way down and have stops at each new low
> yes it is an unwillingness by which ever side to acknowledge what is happening - then a the very moment they should be operating they get stopped out and reverse -- it becomes the if only ....;..
> easy to describe but hard to enact -- the opposite side
> have to let the mkt breathe sometimes
*** So much trading and psychological wisdom in so few words!
The revelation for comes after I find these words quite clearly describing my own reaction. The rationale of this missed trades/opportunities is >>> Have a plan and execute it!

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