Wednesday, March 5, 2008

EURJPY -> SAR trade - 05.03.2008

ok - I got a nice reversal today - starting lightly probed the short side as indicated by the red lines I sold EJ at 157.17 & GJ at 204.93.
However my conviction in those shorts was deeply undermined by the strange divergence in the DAX soaring at +1% and FTSE almost flat. The answer came from the surge in EURGBP an hour before the EZ Retail Sales data that came in slightly better than expected.
Anyway my first entry was based on the breach of this diagonal lines - which was rather vague argument. That's why I cut my Short GJ rather soon with a 3 pip loss before it broke down to 204.50. It soon after reversed and went straight back.
What I did is focus on the less volatile EURJPY since EZ retail data was good; DAX was doing rather good >>> last piece of info came that big shorts in USDJPY from 120/117 were unwinded - which would boort the USDJPY higher giving strength to the EUR cross.
As I had a short at 157.17 I reversed the whole position as soon as I saw it breaking the intraday highs around 159.35 - long position was established at 157.37.
I was a bit scared and shaken as the first initial leg after the Retail data to 157.42 actually reversed - however my conviction in the fundamental factors kept me in and I also added some when I saw 157. 17 again.
> After 2 hours I covered at 157.76. Bollinger Bands didn't suggest strong continuation so I decided to keep the profit.

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