Here is a Monthly Chart of S&P. I know it's a long shot or a wild card guess but to me the target looks realistic given the scope of the credit problems in the global financial system.
Now that the Fed went all in with its latest PPIP program markets got some fresh air and the exhilaration spread from New York to Tokyo and even a little bit to the Emerging Markets.
However as reality starts to bite again the Daily S&P chart shows a trandline break and the Bear market course seems to be on again.
Anyway this Montly chart is here just as to remind me how things looked like as of today so that I can get back and review my understanding in a point in future when this all will be put in he hindsight perspective.