Tuesday, October 27, 2009

GBP/USD - 5-months of Balanced Range

Following last weeks call of Breakout in the Pound Sterling I must admit the technical picture has altered. The channel breakout after re-drawing seems to fit quite nice in the grand scheme of the intermediate trend which still points down.

The other quite interesting fact that I have already pointed before is the balanced range within which the Pounds is confined . The chart clearly shows that the last 5 months GBP/USD rate has been trading inside a Lower trading band 1.60-61 and Higher trading band 1.66 -1.6740.

There have been a few overshoots lower to 1.57-58 and higher to 1.70, however the control of the range balance is quite amazing..

Focusing on the short term the fast rally: 1.5706 -- 1.6696 has ended with a Hanging Man candle followed by a massive Key Reversal on Friday taking out the lows of the previous 3 days.

Interesting facts are that price stopped and the Doji candle yesterday is right at the Support of the 55-DMA (1.6285 now) which also held the Lows today. Lastly the 50% fib retracement of the 1.5706 - 1.6696 is at 1.6199. That simply means we are trading inside he Key Reversal range until one side doesn't hold.

Short term I'd watch for a break of either 1.6474 on the upside or 1.6239 - 58 on the downside.

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