Sunday, October 18, 2009

US Dollar Index (DX) - Priary Trend is Down but do you see also a Falling Wedge?

Weekly chart: well we have this clear trend inside the grand trend channel /red lines/.
Even Paul Krugman in NYT is defending the Fed policy of zero interest rate and weak US Dollar as means to boost the US economy through export expansion and thus balancing the trade account. One can see the nice gradual depreciation of the US currency on the chart.

Just technically the picture is clear: RSI is neatly pointing down into breaching the oversold territory and the Slow Stochastics have been coiling on the bottom for the length of the slow grind - the descending range trading channel we can see from June this year.

I can mark the 74 level as line in the sand right now since once breached it goes in to this last cluster of Support 74-72 and beyond that is the abyss.
However since the USD bearish sentiment is at extreme levels and hardly I can pick a contrarian view anywhere in the media or the web I just keep an eye on the alternative scenario.

I marked in Green Lines a pattern resembling a Falling Wedge - while short term we might have a squeeze of weak Dollar bears up to 77 - we need a decisive close above 77.50 to take a serious bet on the USD. Risk here lies on a close below 75.

No comments:

Post a Comment