Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Markets in a state of Trend - ETF snapshot

Crude oil spikes higher above the 50-DMA and the current range bound trading prevails.
Looking at the futures if we take out $78 then $84 comes in focus - the bounce off $70 level was quick and it leaves me watching the price asking myself if this is the next leg up or squeezing the weak shorts.

iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond - Yields are historically low and the Diamond top pattern confirms in my view a possible selloff in corporate bonds. At some point bond vigilantes will come out and start punishing the bond issuers for the huge debt accrued and for the low returns on its unproportionate risk.

SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond - Junk bonds broke the uptrend and I assume it confirms the scenario of rising yields already starting to happen.

US Treasury bonds are trending down - another confirmation that the inflationary trade and rising yields is actually in progress.

PowerShares DB Agriculture - it looks like an equilibrium right at the 200-DMA and a the center of the range channel. Let's see if 50-DMA holds but still we need to break away from this channel for any meaningful trend to be confirmed.

Silver is developing a large symmetrical triangle pattern. The bounce higher will meet the tough resistance at $16.

Gold uptrend hasn't been damaged so far by the liquidations in the last 2 weeks. The Bullish wedge confirms continuation so far.

ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Metal ETN - 50-DMA is pivotal to the present development. So far the 200-DMA held the plunge and I'd like to see how Metals will fare around the present resistance level.

S&P - "keep doing until no longer works"?

Just ow resilient are the Emerging Markets to the local financial crises like Dubai and Greece? Keeping the uptrend intact and developing into expanding triangle EEM will also need to take out the 50-DMA to keep its move. A failure puts again the 200-DMA support in focus.

US Dollar is correcting but uptrend is still intact.


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