Thursday, February 18, 2010


EUR/USD since Dec 2009 is in trend.
here's the hindsight 'wisdom':

1.51 > 1.35 = 1600 points with only a slight bear flag consolidation between the 2 trend legs.

legendary traders like Soros say 'in the end only trend-followers survive' and Ed Seykota also holds this view with a great attention to holding to trend positions and especially against the daytrading..

now my personal experience with trading with the prevailing trend and going for the 'easy' contra trades is that when trading along the strong /trend side - trades usually unfold easy and I'm quick to take profit and leave a big part of the move...

then I make some in contra trades but they usually are nerve consuming - need quickly to take profit since the reversals are very fast and might wipe the whole profit in 1to 4 hours bar and one has to be smart in scaling-in.

trouble for me has been I'd make some profits in congestions as with contra trades it's easy to pick a side and enter with tight stop beyond the range end - that however is tricky as I went 4 times yesty and got stopped every time since I was going against the 'freight train' - another popular adage..

the problem with trading the prevailing trend/strong side is when the move has begun most are uneasy to jump as the risk is hard to define and one might be jumping in the end of leg/move.
it's not an easy task but however I'd make this extra effort and will focus now exclusively in picking my spot in trading with the prevailing trends and will resist in going for contra trades - I write it here as a reminder for my personal decision.

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