Thursday, August 19, 2010

SOFIX trend update

The major Bulgarian Stock Exchange Index - SOFIX bounced off 360 level of Support vigorously but I'd like to mention a few points of caution before we cheer the rise.

The chart clearly shows a series of Lower lows/highs and until this is changed it would be early to call a trend reversal.

400 level is a Major Pivot and a sentiment indicator as it clearly turned from Resistance into Support and now it would be again a serious test for the Bulls. Indicator-wise RSI is in deeply Overbought area and it is a sign of caution. If we see continuation of the upmove it might hang in there for a while but still we might see a powerful correction until 400 is decisively cleared and technical indicators are favorable for a Long position.

On the other side the Upmove is supported by the Trenline support coming off the Feb 2009 Lows and also price is hanging above the 100-Day MA, which however is pretty flat and it suggest we could just have a prolonged period of sideways consolidation.

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