Well it leaves the whole world scratching their heads why Crude Oil is rising. Is it the OPEC cutting production, is there higher global consumption or maybe the world reserves are getting scarce? Yes indeed I heard a news report that at current rate of producion there are 40 years left of reserves.
The obvious link is the tight correlation between the Crude Oil and the EURUSD - there are marching right by side - so seems the USD depreciation is fueling the Crude and actually the overall Commodity rise. Let's see what the price tells:
The most obvious fact is that the Trend has reached the Channel top which is around $74.
The Parabolic rise has a recond high ADX reading at 37(Substantial trend strength) and a bounce off to a rather big distance from the rising 21-DMA. The RSI is rising in accordance.
I try to watch and react to chart, not try to be too smart. So I have too possible scenarios that I wait to see a confirmation for. The Bullish one is a Parabolic thrust above the Channel top into the Goldman Sachs touted target $85.
The Bearish scenario should see the Channel bottom broken:
-1st Support: $65 / 21-DMA
-2nd support: $58-60 / confluence of 55 and 200-DMAs
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Natural Gas is a puzzle while the Crude is flying.
The overhaed resistance at $4.50 rejected it 3 times and now there is a pending Dead Cross of the 21 and 55-DMAs. The observation is on the slightly rising Support trendline.
ADX has a very poor reading to state the obvious range consolidation. Currently here is the 4.25 - 3.50 range that has to be broken to have a signal of some sort.
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Wow, Silver is a bullish article as Gold has somewhat stalled in a 5 day flat line.
Well, to be honest it is on a important Support level - both the Channel trendline and a bounce off the Rising 21-DMA.
ADX strength (32.79) is good and the DI+/DI- are maintaing the Bullish scenario atm.
There is always a possibility that while we watch the trend we overstay our welcome. However there is always a loss attached to trying to outsmart or guess or vidine the future. As I noted that Crude was at a fulcrum point and might break - so is Silver here.
The Bullish target would be the Channel top above $18 - this means a parabolic breakaway move. The Bear case given a channed breakdown is the immediate Support at $13.50 / 55-DMA.
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Copper Futures persist in their rise. The Rising channel top gives some reasonable targets around 260/270 range.
Trend is intact supported by the rising 21 and 55 MAs. Wilder's ADX also states the trend is actually accelerating witha reading of trend strength of 22.35. The RSI is rising in accordance.
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