Thursday, June 18, 2009

S&P 500 Index at a critical juncture - A break of the tight 905 / 930 consolidation range will produce a strong trend move

Here are the important facts drawn from the current chart.

The break from the 945/950 level bounced nicely off the infamous 200-DMA at 904.
However the short-term view favors the bearish side until S&P is trading below the 21-DMA. It is clearly seen that we might witness some range trading defined by the 21 and 200-DMAs - that is in the 900/905 <> 925/930.

The technical picture has a bias on the bear side as well:
-RSI is holding below the mean 50 level and it is for the first time since the big March panic selloff - sure a sign to pay attention to.

- ADX - the trend indicator has already signalled by the DI+ cross below the DI- a trend reversal. Now we watch for confirmation and acceleration since the trend strength (ADX reading is 19.22) is close to the lows for the year.

- MACD has given also short signallast week and is trending lower with a sustainable slope angle.

At the moment I watch for a break of the 900 - 930 consolidation range with a slight bias to see the solid Support line at 875 being tested. Should it not happen and we see a close above 950 then I favor a fast rally to the important 1000 mark.

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