Monday, June 8, 2009

USD/CAD Weekly chart - 08.06.2009

USD/CAD weekly is very similar to the USD Index chart.

Please note carefully the upper trading range of the Sept'08 - April'09 distribution phase was approximately 1000 pips (1.18 - 1.28). Here is a good place to underline the importance of the long shadows of the weekly nadles that reach up to the 1.30 area. This is exteemly valuable information and I'd like to remember it very well as it was a good indication that the 'goose' had problems flying that high.

Well as we see the 3-rd attempt to break above 1.28 in April was rejected. There is a nice Bearish Engulfment right at the top and the Downtrend ensued.

Here is a great note to measured moves. Now if we witness a 1000 pip trading range - once its borders are broken we can easily expect a rotation of the same extent to the other side ot border that has bent.

So once the 1.18 was broken the trend took the price down to 1.08. Now here we encounter 2 major Supports. One is the 89-week MVA and the other is the fact that 1.08 was a long term resistance level as shown on the chart. While the price is now in the middle of the 1.08 - 1.18 range I suggest we wait for a clear signal on the direction.

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