Tuesday, December 22, 2009

4 Major currency pairs in the present moment and reflections on trend and range...

think as I misaligned my strategy for trend last few attempts while caught in a tight range day... that key to trading should be flexibility but also one needs a certain rule set or a method to discern the state of the market in order to trade in accordance to the present moment..

the reversal plays in this straight move in EUR/USD were very shallow - and on 4-hour timeframe the trend pattern is very clear. I think observing this trend move that ..

last 2 days /friday, monday/ however had low range - if using the BBands it pretty much likes as if the trend is actually accelerating - maybe this proximity to the 200-dma at 1.4186 has the whole market on focus and pulls mike a mega magnet.

the trading misfortune recently had a serious damage on the account but the learning worth believe is on balance.

the momentum of a 3 week is obviously very strong!
when I see multi-day sequential trend I start to over rationalize of 'possible', 'unexpected' etc moves. in a way in my attempt to outsmart the market I outsmart myself while not going with the trend that is in the present moment .
the trend - the contrarian thinking is takes the opposite side:
with each successive trend day the odds of reversal and its strength increases.
so here can be found 2 weak links:
1- one should be either using trend or range methods or in the best chance to be flexible and discernible to which the present market pertains.

2- the misalignment of risk profile to the timeframe - I got whipsawed on trades I attempted off the daily and 4-hour frames while I would be just great trading the daily range in the 1 hour to 15-min-as-signal frames.

1 comment:

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