the reversal plays in this straight move in EUR/USD were very shallow - and on 4-hour timeframe the trend pattern is very clear. I think observing this trend move that ..
last 2 days /friday, monday/ however had low range - if using the BBands it pretty much likes as if the trend is actually accelerating - maybe this proximity to the 200-dma at 1.4186 has the whole market on focus and pulls mike a mega magnet.
the trading misfortune recently had a serious damage on the account but the learning worth believe is on balance.
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the momentum of a 3 week is obviously very strong!
when I see multi-day sequential trend I start to over rationalize of 'possible', 'unexpected' etc moves. in a way in my attempt to outsmart the market I outsmart myself while not going with the trend that is in the present moment .
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the trend - the contrarian thinking is takes the opposite side:
with each successive trend day the odds of reversal and its strength increases.
so here can be found 2 weak links:
1- one should be either using trend or range methods or in the best chance to be flexible and discernible to which the present market pertains.
2- the misalignment of risk profile to the timeframe - I got whipsawed on trades I attempted off the daily and 4-hour frames while I would be just great trading the daily range in the 1 hour to 15-min-as-signal frames.
with each successive trend day the odds of reversal and its strength increases.
so here can be found 2 weak links:
1- one should be either using trend or range methods or in the best chance to be flexible and discernible to which the present market pertains.
2- the misalignment of risk profile to the timeframe - I got whipsawed on trades I attempted off the daily and 4-hour frames while I would be just great trading the daily range in the 1 hour to 15-min-as-signal frames.
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