Sunday, December 6, 2009

Gold - how about a top?

I waited for a long time to see some sign of reversal. Here are my points of assuming the Top is in place right now.

Friday's move close wiped out 2 weeks of ascent. The move since October formed an Ascending Broadening Wedge which if broken would give a target at $1025. The only problem right now is Friday's candle probed he T/L Support but closed right at the Line and also still above the 21-Day MA (1153,43).

RSI has already given Sell signal and ADX formed a top high above the DI- & DI+ which are now about to cross. According to Welles Wilder, who created those indicators, this formation with the ADX high above both the DI-&DI+ is a very good indication of a Trend reversal. There were 2 previous occurrences in September and October, however due to the strength of the trend they only yielded a shallow retraces.

Last take on the Reversal or at least the start of the Distribution phase is the rise in volatility. Average True Ranges are going through the roof to a year highs with 2 days of more than $60 range in last 2 weeks after we have been used to a $20 range. Watch it closely and go with the flow!

No comments:

Post a Comment