Monday, October 8, 2007

AUDUSD - 4H Short

Shorting AUDUSD here at 0.8924.

> The break down level is at 0.8915 - target for the 0.87 level where the major support lines comes at..

Confirmation of the signal comes from the DMI cross and the MACD cross from above - the confluence of thse indicators coupled with the price action failing from the recent Middle term high above 0.90 would suggest a pullback.


What is obvious from Daily perspective -- trend has been quite parabolic and needs a rest - DMI hasn't exceeded the last expansion and looks back to contract and eventually cross in opposite direction thus signalling the upcoming breakdown.
Fibonacci measured targets:
1. 23.6% -- 0.8711
2. 38.2% -- 0.8513
These two are good enough. The MACD Historigram is moving towards the 0 line and the MACD signal has been trending for a nice period of time - which on the other side puts the odds of crossing the MACD Signal line from above much higher.
However calling tops is quite a risky trade as you would be better if waiting for a nice trend to get moving and catch the easy part of the trade... But on the other side we are speculating here and putting the money on a scenario / view based on my observations of the market dynamics.

No comments:

Post a Comment