Sunday, November 22, 2009

Crude Oil (Nymex) - Triangle break & Critical Support at 75.80 (200-Week MA)

There are 2 technical scenarios to approach the present structure of the Crude Oil's trend. However the both rely on the Critical importance of the 200-Week MA at 75.80.

First and most obvious is the Ascending Triangle breakout above 75 that happened in October. The upside is coinciding nicely with the 200-Week MA and the measured target is around $91.

Second scenario is if the Trendline Support that comes in around 76 will hold the rise. The RSI is holding a steady run above the average and that is positive for the scenario.

It is however a curious development that we have 3 weeks of indecision marked by the 3 Dojis which are also spinning tops as the Highs of all coincide. While Gold marches higher relentlessly these 3 weeks of tight range might be considered a warning to the Bulls as most obvious patterns recently failed to materialize.

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