Sunday, November 22, 2009

Gold's relentless rise

Gold is up 69% from the Oct 2008 Lows around $680 and already 11% above it's previous $1033 top. While the trend has the momentum and the fundamental underpinning to proceed I would like to look for contrarian signals.

Just to asses the present moment we have a RSI reading high like in Nov '08 and March '09 - that saw corrections. The Trend strength measured by the Wilder's ADX is reaching the 25 threshold thus signalling the solid momentum of the movement.

As Welles Wilder had written there is a good sign for going against the prevailing trend when the ADX rises above both the +DI & -DI. The timing and the money management is critical to the success of taking such signal as we can see such a setup occurred in Jan '08 but it wasn't until the end of March '08 that the intermediate high at 1033 was reached and the correction ensued.

Pattern-wise I drew a tentative Rising Wedge wich projects a Resistance around $1175-80 level.
The stock indices become weaker and while the might be some Christmas window dressing I see the exponentially rising of the Gold Trend as a precursor of the next bout of stock indices fall.

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