Wednesday, November 11, 2009

USD Index (NYBOT:DX) - Double bottom?

There is widespread media speculation going on with the state of the USD as a reserve currency.
From IMF officials stating it's still overvalued to smart speculators looking for a bounce on the notion of the overstretched USD sellers' Open Interest in the CME futures positions.

Here is a purely technical picture: there is potential for a Double Bottom IF the 74.80 level holds - it's where last month we had a bounce. However the trend channel (green lines) is still down and intact after the Resistance trend line held the spike to he 50-Day MA.

The Volatility measured by the ATR has been very low since August '09 - and that implies trend continuation. Fundamentally while there was so much negative talk about the economic recovery we have seen all major indices and commodities relentlessly rise. That means we must go with the flow until we have a signal or proof of turning point.

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