Wednesday, November 18, 2009

S&P500 shows signs of exhaustion

The 7 month run of the S&P is exhausted and the momentum is already missing.
RSI and Slow Stochastics are both suggesting that a pullback is imminent - the question remaining is if it would be a short term, intermediate or a long term top?

While I'm far away from the perma-bear state of mind - there is a great chance that the illusion of the end of the "greatest recession" since "The Great Depression" was just cheap liquidity pumped into the system to lift the asset valuations. However Debt ratios remain extremely high and job market is still very weak - that means that consumption and private investments will be scarce and the economic growth can't go on on government spending only - not to mention the gigantic US debt issued in the the last 2 years.

Purely technical picture would suggest we are inside the primary trend channel (red), however the Momentum is already slowing and the price is making only marginally higher highs/ higher lows. The Sideways range channel in the last 2 months confined the advance of the move.

Last weeks advance has been followed by the indecision pattern of 2 consecutive Doji candlestick days. 1100 level is psychological Support and below we go for the 50-Day MA that held all previous corrections. However I doubt this time we will have much support there as I see a fast move towards 1025-50 area where initially the trendline support will pause the price decline.

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