Thursday, September 17, 2009

AUD/USD - too much too high?

So if we look at the market with the assumption that easy and most money are made in trading trends - here is the picture:

1. Weekly - We have spent all 2009 till present in one big rally from 0.63 to nearly 0.88 - with only one Bull Flag consolidation in June..
the pair trades high above the 61.8 fib and he target seems to be the 78.6 at 0.9029..

2. Daily - the most notable pattern is that Bull Flag consolidation channel that took the whole month of June to form and the breakout occured in July above 0.81

the 3 horizontal levels are the stairway pattern of ranges:
0.8280 was a pivotal level and a solid support till in start of September the Resistance at 0.85 was broken.

then the range established itself a notch higher between the 0.85 - 0.87 - this level was broken yesterday along with new highs in Gold and Silver.

3. 4-hour chart - we see this 0.85-0.87 range and the rounded top formed since the break of 0.87...
so what's the point of this story:
if trading short term - then we have to see if support at 0.8667 which is confluence of previous range top now turned support and the 21-MA which is pivotal to the present time frame. then we either rotate back inside the 85087 range or take off higher.

my take is we have some time out since this can't go on forever.

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