Wednesday, September 16, 2009

EUR/USD meets the T/L Resistance at 1.4735

Here are some Sequential facts:
> from the base at 1.42 we have 530 pips trend with 9 Up days and only 2 down tight range days.

some evidence from March '09 show we had a powerful move of 10 up days with only 2 down days in the basing structure.

what is interesting to me is we either bounce off the current Channel top at 1.4735 or we accelerate to meet the projected top of the bigger Channel which is at 1.52 right now..

NOTE: the large/white upper T/L - if you connect March _ June highs - there is a trendline Resistance which if projected backwards just goes perfectly to the Jan high at 1.3328 - the only problem is the lower T/L..
- since I try to chart an Uptrend - then I must be focused on the Supportive T/L and the Large/White 'channel' has some flaws - like my call for a straight 500pip move to 1.52.

Certainly calling another 500 pip rally is bold but I get clue from the Dec'08 squeeze and the March '09 sharp up-move.

WHY? --- well I gather from recent trading themes that market is geared to seize the USD carry theme.

So if we step on that assumption then any rise in risk appetite should see USD selling --- from the pieces of analysis i read the USD is now much better funding ccy than JPY or CHF - so what was Pavlov's dog reflex to sell JPY before is turning to USD selling.

Checking on the markets we have a massive moves to new highs in Gold (1022), Silver (17.45), Copper (294 - just shy of 298 highs), S&P500 up 1.30% to 1066 -- so we have stocks and commodities rally and USD depreciation hedge in Gold and Silver at the same time.
I should check twice since in trading this same impatience has cost me a lot just for trying to fit my trading with some occasional 'bright' idea instead of double checking and waiting for a respective confirmation.

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