Wednesday, September 2, 2009

US Dollar Index charts

A few hints about the direction of the USD index are:
- DMI is about to give a buy signal
- RSI pops above mid level

However the 78 - 79 range is still intact so the price is neutral atm and pivoting 2 weeks around the middle of the 78/79 range as seen on the chart..

To me it looks like bottoming and however in this business you always need confirmation before you commit - otherwise its called gambling - so I would like to see a 20&50 Day MAs reach a Golden Cross which most likely would coincide with a breakout above the Short term Resistance around 79.50/60 -- it's obvious how nicely the 50-Day MA held the rise 2 weeks ago - so let's watch for the next test.

USDX Monthly chart is exremely interesting to me as I have no experience trading off such Long term time frames.
My first impression is that until the price regains the 80/81 area it is still bearish as it is lingering below the central range area as marked by the horisontal channel lines.
So it is a game of patience as to see if last month's candlestick might be taken for a near-Doji and might be a signal for reversal.
A break & close below 78 negates this scenario.

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