Wednesday, September 16, 2009

USD Index ($USD) - 7 Consecutive Down days - what if we have a surprise rally?

USD index is mostly a mirror image of the EUR and cousins - however it was interesting for me to try to put it in a perspective. Here is an interesting tech picture:

1. Slow Stochastics and Wilder's DMI both show downtrend continuation.

2. USD Index has spent already 6 down days below the significant chart point -> Dec'08 Low around 77.65.

3. Now what is interesting to me are those 2 facts:

a> at the start of Sept'09 USDX didn't even touch the projected Channel top but dropped straight through 78 and the 77.50/60 lows.

b> however I can't really imagine a drop where the Channel bottom is projecting... not that fast at least

> also please note that this is already the 7-th down day and I couldn't find any such sequence in the last year to date period.

> this corresponds to the slow grind process in the EUR/USD which makes every day marginal new highs - and this is also called "Labored Move".

So while I don't want any more to call tops and bottoms, however while the important 76 isn't even probed so far and we have 7 consecutive down days there is a mighty chance for a counter rally to the surprise of the late USD bears.

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