Wednesday, September 16, 2009

EUR/USD acceleration for a measured target 1.52?

Weekly chart:
1. That T/L from Sept'08 highs got broken last week
2. We HAVE NOT CLOSED below 10-Week MA since March 15, 2009
3. The Upper Bollinger Band is right now at 1.4644 - so it means this week we either retrace inside BBands and test the Support around 1.44 or accelerate straight up.
Daily chart:
1. While watching the consolidation channel (yellow lines) I didn't see the Big trend Channel (solid white) -- EUR/USD bounced off without even touching the base around 1.42..

2. So 1.4720 is a pretty significant point - it is a confluence of Resistance - Dec'08 High and the Consolidation channel top (1.4740 approximately)...

Now the last 5 days developed much like a Flag pattern (as visible on the 4-hour chart) - but it can also be seen as an Expanding Triangle which has Continuational implication.

So a measured move that passed the length of the Consolidation channel in 8 days from 1.42 to 1.47 is 500 Pips.

Now if we assume we are in trend mode and break tomorrow 1.4720/40 cluster of resistance - then a new measure of the next 500 pips comes comfortably at 1.52 -- which is the Projected Top of the Big trend channel as seen on the Daily chart.
Certainly it looks like a long shot at the moment and I'm interested where we'll see some reaction.

on a side note the S&P, Gold, Silver all made new highs - the Limit up moves in Corn & Soybeans all at one moment certainly mean something.

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